2023 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election

The 2023 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election will be held following the resignation of Steven Del Duca on June 2, 2022 after the party won only 8 seats and failed again to gain official party status in the general election. The date of the leadership vote has been set for December 2, 2023.

2023 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election
December 2, 2023
 
Candidate Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Riding Beaches—East York[lower-alpha 1]
Incumbent Leader

John Fraser (interim)


2023 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election
DateDecember 2, 2023
ConventionTBD
Resigning leaderSteven Del Duca
Won byTBD
BallotsTBD
CandidatesTBD
Entrance Fee$100,000
(plus $25,000 refundable deposit)
Spending limit$900,000

Background

In the 2022 general election, the Ontario Liberals saw a modest increase in support over their 2018 result, finishing second in the popular vote. However, the party won only 8 seats, once again falling short of official party status. On the night of the election, Del Duca, who had failed to win back his own riding of Vaughan—Woodbridge, announced his resignation as party leader, stating that a leadership race would be organized to take place "as soon as is reasonable".[1]

Rules and procedures

Under the procedure outlined by the party's constitution,[2] all members of the Ontario Liberal Party will be eligible to vote directly for leader by preferential ballot as long as they are members in good standing as of September 11, 2023.[3]

Votes will be weighted, with each provincial electoral district being allocated 100 points, and with points in a district allocated in proportion to each candidate by the number of first preference votes received. Each of the party's student clubs will be allocated 50 points, and each of the party's women's clubs will be allocated 5 points.[4] Members will be able to vote in-person with voting taking place on November 25-26th 2023, with some in sprawling northern ridings likely to be allowed to mail in ballots.[5]

Ballots will be counted on December 2nd, 2023. When the ballots are counted, if no candidate receives 50 per cent of the points, the lowest-ranked candidate will be dropped from the next round, with their second choice votes distributed to the remaining candidates. This will continue until a candidate receives 50 per cent of the vote.

This will mark the first time that this weighted direct vote system will be used in an Ontario Liberal Party leadership election. In March 2023, at the party's Annual General Meeting, a constitutional amendment was approved which changed the leadership election process from a delegated leadership convention to a weighted One Member One Vote system.[6][7][8]

Timeline
  • June 2, 2022 - Ontario general election held, resulting in a second consecutive majority PC government. The Liberals win 8 seats, falling short of official party status. Steven Del Duca, who failed to win his own seat, announces his resignation in his concession speech.[9]
  • July 25, 2022 - John Fraser, who previously served as interim leader from 2018 until 2020, is unanimously selected by the Ontario Liberal caucus to serve as interim leader.[10]
  • August 3, 2022 - Party executive formally ratifies selection of Fraser as interim leader.[11]
  • March 4-5, 2023 - Ontario Liberal Party Annual General Meeting approves a constitutional amendment changing the leadership election procedure from a delegated leadership convention to a One Member One Vote process. A new party executive is elected which will set the rules and timeline for the leadership election.
  • April 16, 2023 - Party executive announces timeline and fee schedule for the election.
  • September 5, 2023 - Candidate registration deadline.[12]
  • September 11, 2023 - Deadline to join the Ontario Liberal Party and be eligible to vote in the leadership election as party member.[12]
  • November 25-November 26, 2023 - Ranked ballots will be cast by party members.[12]
  • December 2, 2023 - Ballots counted with the new leader announced the same day.[12]
  • May 8, 2023 - Nathaniel Erskine-Smith declares his candidacy.[13]

Candidates

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Nate Erskine-Smith Campaign Logo
Background: MP for Beaches—East York (2015-present)
Date announced: May 8, 2023 [13][14]
Date registered with Elections Ontario:
Campaign website: www.meetnate.ca

Potential

This list includes prospective candidates who have made repeated public expressions of interest over multiple months, or have prominent party members being reported as part of their exploratory effort.

Speculated

This list includes prospective candidates who were speculated in the media but made no public expression of interest or reported exploratory effort, and those who expressed interest prior to February 2023 but caused no visible exploratory presence at either the Ontario Liberal Party annual meeting in March 2023 or the Liberal Party of Canada convention in May 2023.

Declined

Opinion polling

Liberal supporters
Polling firm Last date of polling Sample
size		 Link Margin of
error		 Navdeep Bains Maurizio Bevilacqua Michael Coteau Bonnie Crombie Nathaniel Erskine-Smith Ted Hsu Mitzie Hunter Jeff Lehman Mary-Margaret McMahon Yasir Naqvi Arif Virani Other
Probit Inc. November 29, 2022 814 [39] ± 3.4 % 6% 3% 5% 28% 12% 3% 13% 8% 3% 7% 3% Yvan Baker 2%
Stephen Blais 2%
John Fraser (write-in) 1%
Other 3%

Notes
  1. Erskine-Smith represents the federal riding of Beaches—East York as an MP.

References
  1. Callan, Isaac (2 June 2022). "Steven Del Duca fails to win provincial seat, resigns as Ontario Liberal leader". Global News. Retrieved 3 June 2022.
  2. "Constitution of the Ontario Liberal Party" (PDF). www.ontarioliberal.ca. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  3. "Rules of Procedure for the 2023 Leadership Contest" (PDF). www.ontarioliberal.ca. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  4. Chamandy, Aidan; Pinkerton, Charlie (4 March 2023). "Ontario Liberals to allow all members to vote in leadership elections". The Trillium. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
  5. Ferguson, Rob (16 April 2023). "'Exactly what we need' or 'dumbest decision'? Ontario Liberals announce Dec. 2 for leadership vote". Toronto Star. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  6. Ferguson, Rob (4 March 2023). "Ontario Liberals one step closer to new leader with one-member, one-vote system". Toronto Star. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  7. "Ontario Liberals choose new voting process for leadership race". CBC News. March 4, 2023. Retrieved March 4, 2023.
  8. Jones, Allison (4 March 2023). "Ontario Liberals approve new voting process for leadership race". CityNews. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  9. Rushowy, Kristin (2 June 2022). "Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca steps down after losing riding, failing to gain party status". Toronto Star. Retrieved 3 June 2022.
  10. Benzie, Robert (25 July 2022). "John Fraser to again serve as Ontario Liberals' interim leader". Toronto Star. Retrieved 25 July 2022.
  11. Jackson, Hannah (25 July 2022). "Ontario Liberal caucus selects John Fraser to serve as party's interim leader". Global News. Retrieved 25 July 2022.
  12. "2023 Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election". April 16, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  13. Benzie, Robert (8 May 2023). "The Ontario Liberal leadership race has its first declared candidate". Toronto Star. Retrieved 8 May 2023.
  14. "https://twitter.com/beynate/status/1655657243356831766". Twitter. Retrieved 2023-05-08. {{cite web}}: External link in |title= (help)
  15. Pinkerton, Charlie (22 February 2023). "Stephanie Bowman 'exploring' a Liberal leadership bid". The Trillium. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  16. Boutilier, Alex; D'Mello, Colin (3 June 2022). "Ontario Votes Roundup: Ford has a majority and the opposition is in shambles". Global News. Retrieved 18 August 2022.
  17. D'Mello, Colin (4 May 2023). "Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie strongly considering entering race for Liberal leadership". Global News. Retrieved 8 May 2023.
  18. "New Democrats and Liberals on the hunt for new leaders after Tory landslide". The Toronto Star. 3 June 2022.
  19. McKenzie-Sutter, Holly (8 July 2022). "Caucus members, mayor, businessman and MP ponder Ontario Liberal leadership bids". Global News. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 8 July 2022.
  20. Ferguson, Elliot (20 January 2023). "Kingston MPP Ted Hsu considers Ontario Liberal leadership bid". The Kingston Whig-Standard. Retrieved 21 January 2023.
  21. Regg Cohn, Martin (9 September 2022). "Ontario Liberals need to remake their image. Is a fresh federal transplant the fix?". Toronto Star. Retrieved 12 September 2022.
  22. Jhalli, Anil (19 December 2022). "Ottawa MP considering run at Ontario's Liberal leadership". CityNews Ottawa. Retrieved 22 December 2022.
  23. Woolf, Marie (2023-02-22). "MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith building support for run at Ontario Liberal leadership". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved 2023-02-23.
  24. https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2023/02/21/green-leader-mike-schreiner-says-he-wont-switch-to-liberals-after-brief-courtship.html
  25. Nanji, Sabrina (3 June 2022). "Insiders dish on future Grit, NDP leaders". Queen’s Park Observer. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  26. Southern, Richard (7 October 2022). "Maurizio Bevilacqua not denying plans to seek Ontario Liberal leadership". CityNews. Retrieved 12 October 2022.
  27. Rana, Abbas (October 24, 2022). "Three current Liberal MPs and one former Liberal MP considerin". The Hill Times. Retrieved October 24, 2022.
  28. Clarke, Tyler (8 November 2022). "Glenn Thibeault 'kicking tires' for Liberal leadership run". Sudbury.com. Village Media. Retrieved 10 November 2022.
  29. Benzie, Robert (March 30, 2023). "Navdeep Bains will not run for the Ontario Liberal leadership". Toronto Star. Retrieved April 5, 2023.
  30. Deachman, Bruce (25 July 2022). "Ontario Liberal caucus selects Ottawa South MPP John Fraser to serve as interim leader". Ottawa Citizen. Retrieved 1 August 2022.
  31. Pinkerton, Charlie (January 9, 2023). "Two MPs (and an ex-MP) plot ahead as Ontario Liberal leadership field thins out". iPolitics. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
  32. Rushowy, Kristin (February 27, 2023). "MPP Mitzie Hunter says she won't run for Ontario Liberal leader — but she might run for Toronto mayor". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
  33. Pattison, Ian (3 July 2022). "Change is afoot at every political level in Canada. Will it be change for the better?". The Chronicle-Journal. Retrieved 4 July 2022.
  34. Paikin, Steve (September 14, 2022). "The Liberals need a new leader. Here's where they might find one". TVO. Retrieved October 1, 2022.
  35. McGrath, John Michael (December 8, 2022). "Schreiner responds to yesterday's Star column asserting he has been approached to lead the OLP: "I'm proud to lead the Green Party..." denies any intention to run for Liberal leadership, says he's been invited to run by Liberals and New Democrats". Twitter. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  36. Callan, Isaac; D'Mello, Colin (30 January 2023). "Green Party of Ontario Leader Mike Schreiner rejects public advances from senior Liberals". Global News. Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  37. "'Time to think': Mike Schreiner now mulling letter from senior Ontario Liberal figures | Globalnews.ca". Global News.
  38. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-mike-schreiner-ontario-green-party-liberals/
  39. @EarlWashburn (December 1, 2022). "The @ProbitInc omnibus poll also asked Ontario Liberals who they were supporting for leader. Mississauga mayor Bonnie Crombie is the current leader, though she is unlikely to run. MPP Mitzie Hunter is in second, and maverick MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is in third. #onpoli" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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