Matt Singh

Matt Singh is an election and opinion polling analyst and founder of the website and polling company Number Cruncher Politics, based in London. Singh rose to prominence in mid-2015[1][2][3][4] for his analysis[5] which correctly predicted the opinion polling failure and Conservative victory at the 2015 UK general election, and later became noted as a commentator and pollster on UK politics.

Matt Singh
Singh in 2016

Singh's Number Cruncher Politics published articles on the state of UK public opinion, and carried out regular polls of UK party voting intention.[6] It also undertook commissioned polling for a range of organisations, including on race relations for ITV's current affairs show Peston,[7] on internationalism for the campaign group Best for Britain,[8] and on racism in Wales for ITV Cymru Wales.[9]

As well as accurately forecasting the result of the 2015 UK election, Singh also provided commentary on the Labour Party leadership contest in August 2015, dismissing suggestions that polls were overstating support for eventual winner Jeremy Corbyn and suggesting that they could even be understating it.[10] In the event, Corbyn polled 59.5% of the vote, compared with the final YouGov poll of 57%.

At the 2017 UK election Singh was unable to repeat his success of 2015, suggesting in his Financial Times series The Election Analyst[11] that the polls were again underestimating the Conservatives and that the party was likely to increase its majority.[12] He acknowledged this "proved some way off the mark",[13] as the Conservatives lost seats overall and the election resulted in a hung parliament.

In his time as a commentator Singh wrote for Bloomberg View,[14] The Times,[15] the New Statesman,[16] and the Huffington Post.[17]

Singh left Twitter in August 2022, citing "the realisation of how much time I’m spending putting analysis into the public domain for so little in return, particularly from those it benefits the most", and shortly afterwards ceased updating the Number Cruncher Politics website, whose last published poll was in September 2022.

Banking career

Singh started work for Barclays Capital as an interest rate trader in 2005.[18] He originally worked in UK Gilt trading and later Scandinavian interest rate swaps. He was noted for his instinct in trading against news events.

References
  1. "Spin doctor stuck to a simple message and ruthless tactics" The Times, 9 May 2015
  2. "I am glad the opinion polls got it wrong because it means we’re not robots", The Independent, 12 May 2015
  3. "The blogger who beat the British political pollsters", Sydney Morning Herald, 31 July 2015
  4. "Was anyone right about the pre-election polls?", Understanding Uncertainty (University of Cambridge Statistical Laboratory), 15 May 2015
  5. "Is there a shy Tory factor in 2015?", Number Cruncher Politics, 6 May 2015
  6. "March Voting Intention". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 10 September 2021.
  7. "ITV Peston polling". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 10 September 2021.
  8. "How internationalist is Britain?". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 10 September 2021.
  9. "Race and racism in Wales". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 10 September 2021.
  10. "Matt Singh on Bloomberg TV’s The Pulse", Bloomberg TV interview, 14 August 2015
  11. "Matt Singh". Financial Times. Retrieved 8 January 2018.
  12. "Theresa May's lead has dipped but is stronger than polls suggest", Financial Times, 7 June 2017
  13. "Why almost all the UK election predictions were wrong", Financial Times, 14 June 2017
  14. "Matt Singh". Bloomberg View. Retrieved 15 June 2022.
  15. "Matt Singh". Times Red Box. Retrieved 10 September 2021.
  16. "Matt Singh". New Statesman. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  17. "Matt Singh". Huffington Post. Retrieved 1 January 2016.
  18. "The Blogger Who Beat the British Political Pollsters", Bloomberg Business, 31 July 2015
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