Next United Kingdom general election
The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025. It will determine the composition of the House of Commons.
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All 650 seats in the House of Commons 326 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 28 January 2025, with Parliament being dissolved no later than 17 December 2024, after the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Although a general election campaign encompassing the Christmas period is seen as unlikely by analysts, it is widely expected that the currently-governing Conservative Party will delay the election as long as possible while it remains behind in opinion polling.[2][3][4]
The result of the 2019 general election and members in the House of Commons is given below.
Affiliation | Members | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Elected[5] | Current[6] | Change | ||
Conservative[lower-alpha 1] | 365 | 354 | ![]() | |
Labour[lower-alpha 2] | 202 | 196 | ![]() | |
SNP | 48 | 45 | ![]() | |
Liberal Democrats | 11 | 14 | ![]() | |
DUP | 8 | 8 | ![]() | |
Sinn Féin | 7 | 7 | ![]() | |
Plaid Cymru | 4 | 3 | ![]() | |
SDLP | 2 | 2 | ![]() | |
Alba | 0[lower-alpha 3] | 2[lower-alpha 4] | ![]() | |
Green | 1 | 1 | ![]() | |
Alliance | 1 | 1 | ![]() | |
Reclaim | 0[lower-alpha 3] | 1[lower-alpha 5] | ![]() | |
Speaker | 1 | 1 | ![]() | |
Independent | 0 | 15[lower-alpha 6] | ![]() | |
Total | 650 | 650 | ![]() | |
Voting total[lower-alpha 7] | 639 | 639 | ![]() | |
Vacant | 0 | 0 | ![]() | |
Government majority | 87[lower-alpha 8] | 65[lower-alpha 9] | ![]() |
For full details of changes during the current Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.
Ahead of this general election, HuffPost reported in March 2022 that the Labour Party had abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would become an unlawful practice again under the Equality Act 2010.[13]
Following the UK Supreme Court's decision in November 2022, that a proposed second Scottish independence referendum is outside the competence of the Scottish Parliament, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) announced her intention to treat the next general election as a de facto independence referendum.[14] Unionist parties have rejected this characterisation.[14] Sturgeon resigned as SNP leader and First Minister on 15 February 2023, and was replaced on 27 March by Humza Yousaf.[15]
Electoral system
General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[16] Provisions for these changes have been enacted in the Elections Act 2022.
Boundary reviews
The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, was commenced in 2011, but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[17][18][19] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[20][21] and made their reports public a week later.[22][23][24][20] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[25]
A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the new boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[26][27]
In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[28][29] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[30] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[31][32][33][34] They are required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[25] Once the reports have been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals must be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament.
Date of the election
Legal requirements
At the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the manifesto of the party contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act due to "paralysis at a time when the country has needed decisive action".[35] The pledge was confirmed in the first Queen's Speech following the election.[36]
In December 2020, the government published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[37]
The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 received royal assent on 24 March 2022 and entered into force the same day. The prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met."
The Electoral Commission has confirmed that the 2019 Parliament must be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election must take place no later than 28 January 2025, a Tuesday.[38][39][40]
Possible dates
In September 2021, Oliver Dowden, the newly appointed chairman of the Conservative Party, told party staff to prepare for a general election. The Daily Telegraph reported that an election could be held in May or June 2023.[41][42] In March 2022, Dowden announced that the Conservatives would start a two-year election campaign in May, implying an election date of May 2024.[43] It was reported in April 2023 by The Telegraph that autumn 2024 was the preferred date of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak for the election to be held.[44]
Candidates
Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
As of 5 May 2023, a total of 50 Members of Parliament have announced their intention to not stand for re-election (Conservative: 33, Labour: 12, Independent: 4, Plaid Cymru: 1).
Members of Parliament deselected
Some sitting MPs have not been selected by their party to recontest their seat (or a successor seat). Options available to these MPs include retirement, challenging their non-selection, seeking selection for another seat, and contesting the election under a different banner.
- Richard Bacon, Conservative, South Norfolk (deselected by the Conservative Association)[94]
- Andrew Bridgen, formerly Conservative, North West Leicestershire (Brigden has been expelled from the Conservative Party and sits as a Reclaim Party MP; he has said that he will contest the next election)[95][96]
- Jeremy Corbyn, Labour, Islington North (Corbyn sits as an independent but remains a member of the Labour Party)[97]
- Flick Drummond, Conservative, Meon Valley (Drummond sought selection for the new seat of Fareham and Waterlooville, losing to Home Secretary and fellow MP Suella Braverman)[98]
- Neil Hudson, Conservative, Penrith and The Border (Hudson sought selection for the new seat of Penrith and Solway, losing to fellow MP Mark Jenkinson)[99]
- Sam Tarry, Labour, Ilford South (deselected by the Constituency Labour Party in favour of Jas Athwal)[100]
- Giles Watling, Conservative, Clacton (deselected by the executive of the Conservative Association, with a ballot of the membership pending)[101]
- Claudia Webbe, formerly Labour, Leicester East (Webbe has been expelled from the Labour Party and sits as an independent)[102]
Opinion polling
Opinion polling for UK general elections |
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2010 election |
Opinion polls |
2015 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
2017 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
2019 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
Next election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next United Kingdom general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).
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See also
Notes
- The Government of the United Kingdom is headed by the prime minister, who is currently the leader of the Conservative Party, the largest party in the House of Commons.
- Labour, as the largest party not in government, takes the role of Official Opposition. The Labour total includes 26 MPs sponsored by the Co-operative Party, who are designated Labour and Co-operative.[7]
- At the time of the 2019 election this party did not exist.
- Both of the Alba Party's MPs were elected for the Scottish National Party (SNP) before leaving to join Alba in 2021.[8]
- Reclaim's sole MP, Andrew Bridgen, was elected for the Conservative Party before being expelled in April 2023.[9] He joined Reclaim the next month.[10]
- Six were elected for the Conservatives, seven for Labour and one each for the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
- The seven members of Sinn Féin abstain, i.e. they do not take their seats in the House of Commons;[11] the speaker and three deputy speakers (two Conservative and one Labour) have only a tie-breaking vote constrained by conventions.[12]
- The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting deputy speakers (363), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting speaker and one deputy speaker (276).[6]
- The number of voting government MPs less two non-voting deputy speakers (353), minus the sum of all other present MPs less the non-voting speaker and one deputy speaker (286).
- Originally elected as the MP for Peckham in the 1982 by-election.
- Originally elected as the MP for Lincoln in the October 1974 election
- Originally elected as the MP for Plymouth Sutton.
- Elected as Conservative.
- Originally elected as the MP for Crewe and Nantwich in the 2008 by-election.
- Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central.
- Elected as Labour.
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