Nonproliferation Policy Education Center

The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) is an American nonpartisan think tank founded in 1994 to educate policymakers, the media, and academics about how to control the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).[1][2] NPEC's policy papers urge the United States government to pursue a harder line with potential proliferators of nuclear arms,[1] in contrast to the more "upbeat view" that the risks of nuclear weapons proliferation can be safely managed as nuclear energy programs become more widespread.[3]

Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
AbbreviationNPEC
Formation1994
HeadquartersArlington, Virginia
Executive Director
Henry D. Sokolski
Websitenpolicy.org

Programs

Each year, the NPEC Public Policy Fellowship is offered to young and mid-career government professionals to provide a rigorous understanding of how and why nuclear proliferation occurs.[4] As of February 2018, roughly 150 professionals had completed the course, and were working for both Democratic and Republic members of Congress, staffing committees, and working for the State Department and the Pentagon.[4] In addition, NPEC offers a Space Policy Course taught by space policy practitioners and experts.[5]

Funding

A nonpartisan, nonprofit educational research organization,[2] NPEC has received funding from foundations including the MacArthur Foundation, which awarded 8 grants totalling $2,992,000 between 2008 and 2021.[6] NPEC has also received funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.[7]

Policy stances and commentary

The NPEC website (npolicy.org) has been called a "goldmine" of information related to the sources of fissile material.[8] Henry D. Sokolski, the founder and executive director of NPEC, has argued that the current controls for nuclear nonproliferation must be tightened,[3] and that government leaders are not treating the issue of nuclear weapons proliferation with sufficient urgency.[9] While Sokolski has suggested in the past that the United States should distinguish between "progressive and illiberal regimes" in its approach to nonproliferation policy,[2] he has also warned that the U.S. should avoid incentivizing allies such as Japan and South Korea to increase nuclear fuel production.[10][11] Facts on File has described Sokolski as "hawkish" and has suggested that NPEC is more closely aligned with Republican administrations, pointing to its support of the first George W. Bush administration,[2] when it praised the nuclear disarmament of Libya and Iraq, as well as the enforcement of export controls.[12] However, NPEC was critical of Bush's second term, including its "overly generous nuclear cooperation with India, weak sanctions against Iran, and winking at potentially dangerous nuclear programs in Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen, and the GCC states."[12]

Russia and Ukraine

NPEC Executive Director Henry Sokolski has been an active commentator on the dangers posed by Russia's seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which he argues has not only "raised the specter of a military-induced Fukushima", but also requires an active reassessment by the Pentagon of the implications of waging war where nuclear plants operate; taking on "a more active role in reviewing US nuclear license applications"; and strengthening guidance on targeting nuclear plants in war.[13] He has also suggested that Russia may be threatening to use nuclear weapons because the war with Ukraine has exposed Russia's military weaknesses and lack of high-tech weaponry.[14]

China nuclear buildup

In 2021, NPEC published an edited volume, China's Civil Nuclear Sector: Plowshares to Swords? The NPEC report found that China had the capability to produce between 990 and 1,550 warheads by 2030, using the weapons-grade plutonium that could be produced using civilian reactors that were under construction.[15] Contributors to the report included two consecutive United States assistant secretaries of state;[15] Hui Zhang of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom;[16] and many others. The report was cited and discussed widely in publications such as Reuters,[16] the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,[15] and Popular Mechanics.[17] In January 2022, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published "A China–US war in space: The after-action report" by Henry Sokolski, which analyzed a three-move space war game carried out by NPEC, with support from current and former officials of the Departments of State and Defense, as well as members of the intelligence community and space industry.[18]

Other issues

Sokolski has testified before Congress on numerous occasions on various nuclear issues, including civilian nuclear cooperation agreements (sometimes known as 123 agreements).[19][20] In a March 21, 2018 hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Sokolski stated, "Failure to require Riyadh to forswear enriching or reprocessing in the text of a US-Saudi nuclear agreement (either by excluding this condition or proposing to put a sunset on it) risks pouring kerosene on the embers of nuclear proliferation already present in the Middle East."[21]

Principals
Henry D. Sokolski, Executive Director of NPEC

Executive Director Henry D. Sokolski has run the NPEC since 1994.[9][22] A former Pentagon official, Sokolski served as deputy for nonproliferation under Paul Wolfowitz from 1989 to 1993, when Wolfowitz was Undersecretary of Defense for Policy.[9] He studied with Cold War strategist Albert Wohlstetter at University of Chicago.[9]

NPEC's program advisor Victor Gilinsky has been an independent consultant to NPEC, primarily on nuclear energy matters.[23] From 1975 to 1984, he served as a two-term commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.[23]

Defense policy analyst Gregory S. Jones, publisher of the website Proliferation Matters, has worked with NPEC in the past as a senior research analyst.[24] He has also worked with RAND and Pan Heuristics, and is the author of Reactor-Grade Plutonium and Nuclear Weapons: Exploding the Myths (2018), published by NPEC.[24]

NPEC research fellows have included Zachary Keck in Public Affairs;[25] Robert Zarate;[26] Thomas Riisager in Russian Studies;[27] John Spacapan in Public Affairs;[28] and Carly Kinsella.[29]

Recent publications

Books and articles by NPEC-affiliated authors:

  • Keck, Zachary (2022). Atomic Friends: How America Deals With Nuclear-Armed Allies. Rowman and Littlefield.
  • Gilinsky, Victor and Sokolski, Henry D. (October 2019). "The Nonproliferation Gold Standard: The New Normal?", Arms Control Today, 49(8):12–15.
  • Sokolski, Henry, ed. (2014). Moving Beyond Pretense: Nuclear Power and Nonproliferation. Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press.

Books and reports published by NPEC:

  • Sokolski, Henry, ed. (2021). Peering into Our Nuclear Future: Selected Writings of Victor Gilinsky. Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.

References
  1. Webb, Gregory (December 6, 2003). "Guide to the Web – Special Report – National Journal highlights useful web sites in 50 issue areas – from Afghanistan to gay marriage to Social Security". National Journal. 35 (49) – via EBSCOHost.
  2. Margulies, Phillip (2008). Nuclear Nonproliferation. New York: Facts on File. pp. 219–220, 272. ISBN 9780816072118.
  3. "Books of Note". Arms Control Today. 45 (1): 36. January–February 2015. JSTOR 24336525.
  4. Oswald, Rachel (February 5, 2018). "Nonproliferation Expert Schools Hill Aides on the Danger of Nuclear Annihilation". Congressional Quarterly. Retrieved October 27, 2022.
  5. "Space Policy Course Prospectus". Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  6. "Nonproliferation Policy Education Center". MacArthur Foundation. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  7. "Carnegie Corporation awards $13.5 million in 1Q grants". Philanthropy News Digest. April 9, 2021. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  8. Haggard, Stephan (October 19, 2017). "Henry Sokolski's Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future". Petersen Institute for International Economics. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
  9. Sangillo, Greg; Kukis, Mark (May 22, 2004). "Nuclear, and Other, Worries". National Journal. 36 (21) – via EBSCOHost.
  10. Sokolski, Henry (April 5, 2013). "Pyongyang Is Not Our Only Nuclear Worry". The National Review.
  11. Sokolski, Henry (May 8, 2016). "Japan and South Korea May Soon Go Nuclear". The Wall Street Journal.
  12. Sokolski, Henry (Spring 2007). "Nonproliferation, By the Numbers". The Journal of International Security Affairs – via NPEC.
  13. Sokolski, Henry (2022). "Present Danger: Nuclear Power Plants in War". Parameters. Vol. 52, no. 4. p. 52. doi:10.55540/0031-1723.3178. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  14. LaFranchi, Howard (October 17, 2022). "All that nuclear talk: Is the unthinkable suddenly possible?". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  15. Kristensen, Hans M.; Korda, Matt (November 15, 2021). "Nuclear Notebook: Chinese nuclear forces, 2021". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  16. Gardner, Timothy (March 25, 2021). "China nuclear reprocessing to create stockpiles of weapons-level materials – experts". Reuters. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  17. Delbert, Caroline (May 25, 2021). "China Is Building Two Secret Nuclear Reactors. Scientists Are Worried". Popular Mechanics. Retrieved November 12, 2022.
  18. Sokolski, Henry (January 2022). "A China-US war in space: The after-action report". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 78: 11–16. doi:10.1080/00963402.2021.2014230.
  19. "The Future of International Civilian Nuclear Cooperation". House Foreign Affairs Committee. July 10, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  20. "The Future of U.S. International Nuclear Cooperation". House Foreign Affairs Committee. May 6, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. Sokolski, Henry (March 21, 2018). "Keeping the Middle East from Becoming a Nuclear Wild, Wild West" (PDF). Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa. p. 2.
  22. "Henry Sokolski". The Institute of World Politics. June 11, 2019. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  23. "NPEC Leadership & Staff". NPEC – Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  24. "Contributors". Nonproliferation Review. 26 (1–2): 3–6. June 3, 2019. doi:10.1080/10736700.2019.1608680. S2CID 219626910.
  25. Keck, Zachary (2022). "Atomic Friends: How America Deals with Nuclear-Armed Allies". Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
  26. "Robert Zarate". C-SPAN. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  27. Sokolski, Henry; Riisager, Thomas, eds. (2002). "About the Contributors". Beyond Nunn-Lugar: Curbing the Next Wave of Weapons Proliferation Threats From Russia. Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. p. 262.
  28. "John Spacapan". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
  29. Sokolski, Henry D.; Clawson, Patrick, eds. (January 2004). "Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions" (PDF). Iran Watch: Tracking Iran's Unconventional Weapon Capabilities. Retrieved November 10, 2022.
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