2022 Athabasca provincial by-election

A by-election was held in the provincial district of Athabasca in Saskatchewan on February 15, 2022, following the resignation of incumbent New Democrat MLA Buckley Belanger. After 16 years in Parliament, Belanger resigned from the legislature on August 15, 2021, to run in the 2021 Canadian federal election, as a federal Liberal in the riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River. He was defeated.[1]

2022 Athabasca provincial by-election
February 15, 2022 (2022-02-15)
District of Athabasca
Turnout24.42% (Decrease 9.21pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
SP
Ind.
Candidate Jim Lemaigre Georgina Jolibois Darwin Roy
Party Saskatchewan New Democratic Independent
Popular vote 1,163 916 157
Percentage 51.3% 40.4% 6.9%
Swing Increase 14.79 pp Decrease 16.40 pp -
A map of Saskatchewan's provincial ridings, showing Athabasca highlighted in red.
MLA before election

Buckley Belanger
New Democratic

 Elected MLA

Jim Lemaigre
Saskatchewan

The seat was vacant for six months between Belanger's resignation and the by-election. The seat, which was first contested in 1908, had been held by either the Liberals or New Democrats for the entirety of its history. Along with the neighbouring northern riding of Cumberland, the riding has been considered one of the safest New Democratic seats in Saskatchewan,[2] although candidates for the centre-right Saskatchewan Party have polled somewhat better results in the 21st century compared to Saskatchewan Party and Progressive Conservative candidates in previous elections.

In a major upset, the Saskatchewan Party's Jim Lemaigre, defeated NDP candidate, and former federal MP for much of the district, Georgina Jolibois. The NDP had held the predominantly-indigenous riding almost continuously since 1975,[3] and a conservative candidate had not come within ten percentage points of victory since 1964. The result also came in spite of polling in the month before showing the NDP closer to the Saskatchewan Party in province-wide support than any point in the previous five years.[4]

Three days after the election, leader of the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party Ryan Meili announced his intention to resign as leader and trigger a leadership election.[5][6]

Reaction

In the immediate aftermath of the results, Saskatchewan Premier and Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe called the results "very significant",[7] noting that the Saskatchewan Party government had "always had MLAs representing every part of the province, except for the far north. That changed tonight. Saskatchewan Party MLAs now represent every part of [Saskatchewan]."[8]

Winning candidate Jim Lemaigre stated that he believed a desire for a voice in government had been key to the results, stating that "one elder put it quite nicely, he said 'We've been on the outside of government for so long, why wouldn't we put ourselves back there with this opportunity.' ".[9]

The results also had a significant impact on the provincial NDP, with provincial leader Ryan Meili announcing his resignation as NDP leader three days after the election. Meili said the result was not the reason for his decision, but said that it was "clarifying", and conceded that losing the seat was "really disappointing."[10]

Ken Coates, a Professor of Public Policy at the University of Saskatchewan, expressed surprise at the results, arguing that the Saskatchewan Party “has not been very supportive of northern issues for quite some time” and hasn't consistently reached out to Indigenous people. He argued that the results demonstrated "the really serious failure of the NDP to understand the province of Saskatchewan outside Regina and Saskatoon." Coates argued that the results were primarily driven by local issues, stating that he did not think "either of the leaders played a critical role in this at all" but that the NDP "really does not have a terribly good handle on Indigenous or rural issues".[11]

Results
Saskatchewan provincial by-election, 15 February 2022: Athabasca
Resignation of Buckley Belanger
Party Candidate Votes%±%
SaskatchewanJim Lemaigre1,16351.3+14.79%
New DemocraticGeorgina Jolibois91640.4-16.40%
IndependentDarwin Roy1576.9-
BuffaloClint Arnason120.5-
Total valid votes 2,24899.1
Total rejected ballots 170.8-0.05
Turnout 2,26524.42-9.21
Eligible voters 9,277
Saskatchewan gain from New Democratic Swing +15.6
Source: Elections Saskatchewan[12]

2020 result
2020 Saskatchewan general election: Athabasca
Party Candidate Votes%±%
New DemocraticBuckley Belanger1,73056.80-7.88
SaskatchewanKelly Kwan1,11236.51+12.79
GreenLeroy Laliberte2046.70+4.75
Total valid votes 3,04699.14
Total rejected ballots 260.85+0.44
Turnout 3,07233.63+0.22
Eligible voters 9,136
New Democratic hold Swing -10.33
Source: Elections Saskatchewan[13]

References
  1. "NDP MLA Buckley Belanger resigns from legislature to seek federal Liberal nomination". thestarphoenix. Retrieved 2022-02-16.
  2. "Saskatchewan election results 2016: NDP wins Athabasca riding | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2022-02-16.
  3. Grenier, Éric (Feb 16, 2022). "Sask. Party scores historic win in Athabasca". The Writ. Archived from the original on 2022-02-22. Retrieved 2022-02-16.
  4. Anton, Jessie (Jan 20, 2022). "Sask. Party, NDP polling numbers closest in 5 years: Angus Reid survey". CBC. Archived from the original on 2022-01-21. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  5. Hunter, Adam (2022-02-18). "Sask. NDP Leader Ryan Meili to step down, will remain as interim leader until party chooses a successor". CBC News. Retrieved 2022-02-18.
  6. Williams, Ethan (2022-02-16). "Sask. Party candidate takes Athabasca riding in byelection upset". CBC News. Retrieved 2022-02-19.
  7. Moe, Scott (Feb 15, 2022). "Thank you to the voters of Athabasca for electing Jim Lemaigre..." Twitter. Archived from the original on 2022-02-16. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  8. Moe, Scott (Feb 15, 2022). "Your @SaskParty government has always had MLAs representing every part of the province, except for the far north..." Twitter. Archived from the original on 2022-02-16. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  9. Williams, Ethan (Feb 16, 2022). "Sask. Party candidate takes Athabasca riding in byelection upset". CBC. Archived from the original on 2022-02-16. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  10. Hunter, Adam (Feb 18, 2022). "Sask. NDP Leader Ryan Meili stepping down, will remain as leader until party chooses a successor". CBC. Archived from the original on 2022-02-18. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  11. "Saskatchewan Party's surprise win in Athabasca may be a result of regional politics: USask prof | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2022-02-22.
  12. "2022 Athabasca By-Election". Elections Saskatchewan. 28 February 2022. Retrieved 5 March 2022.
  13. "Statement of Votes" (PDF). Elections Saskatchewan. 30 June 2021. Retrieved 6 October 2021.
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