2023 Fadden by-election

The 2023 Fadden by-election will be held to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Fadden in Queensland. The by-election will be held as the result of the resignation on 18 May 2023 of the sitting member, Stuart Robert, who had represented the Liberal National Party and sat in parliament with the Liberal Party of Australia.[1][2]

2023 Fadden by-election
TBD 2023
Division of Fadden (Queensland) in the House of Representatives
The Division of Fadden is located in southeastern Queensland.
Incumbent MP

Stuart Robert
Liberal National


Background

The Division of Fadden is situated in the northern part of the Gold Coast and is a diverse electorate home to a rapidly growing population. The area has a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial areas and is a popular tourist destination due to its proximity to the Gold Coast theme parks (Dreamworld, Movie World, Sea World and Wet'n'Wild).[3] As of the 2021 census, the Division of Fadden has a population of approximately 163,000 people. The division has a higher than average proportion of young families and first home buyers, as well as a large retiree population. The median weekly household income in the division is $1,719, which is slightly higher than the national average.[4]

The division has largely been a safe seat for the Liberal National Party and its predecessors since its creation, with only one period of Labor representation between 1983 and 1984. Stuart Robert had held the seat since 2007. Robert previously held various ministerial positions, including Minister for Veterans' Affairs and Minister for Human Services.[5]

Previous by-election and potential issues

The 2023 Fadden by-election will be the second by-election in the 47th Parliament, following a by-election for the Melbourne seat of Aston, which was held on 1 April 2023 following the resignation of Alan Tudge. Robert's resignation was unexpected, as it was speculated that the Sydney seat of Cook, a Liberal seat held by former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, would be the next to have a by-election, with reports of Morrison being offered a job in the United Kingdom, focusing on the AUKUS agreement he signed.[6]

The upset loss of Aston was the first time in 103 years that a governing party won a federal seat from the opposition at a by-election (the last time before that being the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election, where the Nationalist Party won the seat from Labor). However, while Labor had not won Aston since 1987, it became a marginal seat in 2019 after the Liberal Party suffered a large swing. Aston is situated in Melbourne, a city where the Liberal Party's support is sharply declining, whereas Fadden is on the Gold Coast, which is traditionally a stronghold for conservatives, therefore it is less likely that Labor will win Fadden. The Liberal Party has stated that they are confident they can retain the seat, with one senior party source saying that the LNP "has their shit together" in Queensland (a traditionally conservative state on a federal level).[7] Another issue in Aston was that the Liberal candidate, Roshena Campbell, was parachutted into the seat. Due to Fadden being a safe seat, some election analysts questioned whether or not Labor would even run a candidate in Fadden, as well as if they would contest a potential by-election in Cook.[8]

Two-party-preferred vote
Two-party-preferred vote in Fadden, 1996–2022
Election1996199820012004200720102013201620192022
 Liberal/LNP67.84%57.59%62.29%65.28%60.20%64.19%64.36%61.05%64.18%60.63%
 Labor32.16%42.41%37.71%34.72%39.80%35.81%35.64%38.95%35.82%39.37%
GovernmentL/NPL/NPL/NPL/NPALPALPL/NPL/NPL/NPALP

2022 election results
Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Fadden
This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland § Fadden.[edit]
2022 Australian federal election: Fadden[9]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal National Stuart Robert 47,190 44.62 −4.10
Labor Letitia Del Fabbro 23,638 22.35 −0.16
Greens Sally Spain 11,353 10.73 +1.73
One Nation Sandy Roach 9,177 8.68 +0.11
United Australia Nathan O'Brien 7,014 6.63 +1.52
Independent Stewart Brooker 4,407 4.17 +4.17
Liberal Democrats Alex Forbes 2,992 2.83 −1.69
Total formal votes 105,771 95.69 +0.60
Informal votes 4,760 4.31 −0.60
Turnout 110,531 86.54 −3.09
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal National Stuart Robert 64,126 60.63 −3.55
Labor Letitia Del Fabbro 41,645 39.37 +3.55
Liberal National hold Swing−3.55

Candidates
Party Candidate Background

Liberal National

On 8 May it was reported that Gold Coast City councillor Cameron Caldwell and Fadden Liberal National Party branch president Fran Ward had both sought preselection.[10]

Further potential candidates include former Senator and current Sky News host Amanda Stoker,[11] Queensland State MP for Bonney Sam O'Connor,[12] and disability activist and Order of Australia recipient Dinesh Palipana.[13]

See also

References
  1. Black, Jessica. "Liberal MP Stuart Robert, who claimed 'absolute responsibility' for Robodebt's implementation, to retire from politics". ABC News.
  2. "Fadden by-election". aph.gov.au. 18 May 2023.
  3. Smee, Ben (17 April 2019). "Fadden: How one of the safest Coalition seats in Australia is being fought over". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  4. "Fadden - Queensland". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  5. "The Hon Stuart Robert MP". Australian Government. Retrieved 6 May 2023.
  6. https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/scott-morrison-reportedly-seeking-life-outside-politics-with-potential-ukbased-job/news-story/2fc43e7ad2a2dcb94a820d306f7bae63
  7. https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/this-is-not-aston-libs-confident-of-holding-fadden-20230507-p5d6cr
  8. https://theconversation.com/easy-liberal-wins-likely-in-byelections-in-roberts-and-morrisons-seats-support-for-rise-in-jobseeker-204798
  9. Fadden, QLD, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.
  10. "Frontrunners to replace Stuart Robert revealed". Sky News. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  11. "Speculation Amanda Stoker could 'put her hand up' for Stuart Robert's seat following resignation". Sky News. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  12. "Fran Ward frontrunner as Liberals bid to replace outgoing Roberts". The Australian. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
  13. "Doctor considers bid for Liberal seat". The Australian. Retrieved 9 May 2023.
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