2023 Montenegrin parliamentary election

Parliamentary elections will be held in Montenegro on 11 June 2023.

2023 Montenegrin legislative election
Montenegro
11 June 2023
All 81 seats in the Parliament
41 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeader Current seats
DPS[lower-alpha 1] Danijel Živković (acting) 33
NSD–DNP[lower-alpha 2] Milan Knezević 15
DCG–URA Aleksa Bečić 12
SNP–Demos Vladimir Joković 6
PzP Nebojša Medojević 5
BS Ervin Ibrahimović 3
Independents – 7[lower-alpha 3]
Incumbent Prime Minister
Dritan Abazović (acting)
URA
Politics of Montenegro
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
Judiciary
  • Supreme Court
  • Constitutional Court
Political parties
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Background

42nd Government

Following the results of the 2020 election, which resulted in a victory for the opposition and the end of the rule of DPS after 29 years of being the dominant political group, three opposition lists, ZBCG, MNN and the URA, agreed to form a technocratic cabinet led by university professor Zdravko Krivokapić. According to the final agreement of the parties, the new government's mandate would be limited to one year, and its primary goals would be fighting organized crime and corruption and depoliticizing governmental and judicial institutions. A reform of electoral laws was also planned, as there were supposed to be new "fair" elections.[1][2][3] Right-wing DF announced limited support for the Krivokapić Cabinet, hoping for new parliamentary elections in late 2021. President Milo Đukanović announced future activities within the "sovereigntist bloc", together with its long-standing minor coalition partners, the SD and LP, as well with some newly formed nationalist parties and initiatives, invoking its role in restoring Montenegrin statehood in 2006, as well accusing the new cabinet of threatening Montenegro's national interests, sovereignty and independence due to open Serbian nationalist talking points from certain ministers.[4] Most notably, Minister of Justice Vladimir Leposavić openly denied the Srebrenica genocide, for which he was voted out of the cabinet. On 4 February 2022, after talks of replacing the government with a minority cabinet supported by either of the two dominant political forces (DPS and DF) and headed by Dritan Abazović, the government collapsed following a no-confidence vote.

43rd Government

DPS agreed to support a minority government, which would go on to be formed on 28 April 2022 by URA, SNP, SDP and CIVIS, as well as ethnic minority parties. However, Abazović kept getting closer to the Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić and prioritized "regional cooperation" over European integration, saying Vučić-backed[5] initiatives such as Open Balkan would get Montenegro closer to European living standards.[6][7] Minister of European Affairs Jovana Marović resigned from the government and her party, URA, due to Abazović refusing to consider the risks of Open Balkan, among other reasons.[8] After an agreement between Montenegro and the Serbian Orthodox Church on 3 August 2022, DPS pulled its support, announcing a no-confidence vote. On 19 August 2022, just before midnight and after a whole day of complex debating in the Parliament, the vote passed.[9] After many unsuccessful attempts at forming a new government for several months, President Milo Đukanović dissolved the Parliament on 16 March 2023 — 3 days before the presidential election — and scheduled elections for 11 June 2023.[10]

Submitted electoral lists
Notes
  1. Including SD, LP and UDSh members integrated within the DPS-led list
  2. Including one RP member integrated within the NSD-DNP coalition list
  3. Independent Members of Parliament include:
  4. Including LDSh and UNSh members integrated within the ASh-led list
  5. Ethnic minority list
  6. Including Civis, UCG and SPP members integrated within the PES! party list
  7. Satirical electoral list

Electoral system

The 81 seats of the Parliament of Montenegro are elected in a single nationwide constituency using closed list proportional representation. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method with a 3% electoral threshold. However, minority groups that account for no more than 15% of the population in a district are given an exemption that lowers the electoral threshold to 0.7%. The parties of the same minority are summed up when calculating the seats to a maximum of three seats.[11] A separate exemption is given to ethnic Croats whereby if no list representing the population passes the 0.7% threshold, the list with the most votes will win one seat if it receives more than 0.35% of the vote.[12]

Opinion polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The threshold for a party to elect members is 3%.

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2023 Montenegrin Parliamentary Election.
Date Polling firm/source DPS
LP		 SD UDSh NSD
DNP		 PzP Prava DHP UCG SNP Demos DCG CnB
URA		 BS SDP ASh Forca PES! Others Lead
May 2023 CeDem 24.1[lower-alpha 1] 1.9 <1 13.2 <1 <1 <1 1.9 <1 11.1 4.4 5.1 2.1 1.9 29.1 5.2[lower-alpha 2] 5
Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton 20[lower-alpha 1] 1 <1 17 <1 <1 <1 1 <1 6 6 1 1 <1 <1 44 3[lower-alpha 3] 24
Feb 2023 MB/CeDem[lower-alpha 4] 34.4 21.8 17.4 4.6 w.DPS 3.6 18.2 n/a 12.6
Feb 2023 MB/CeDem 29[lower-alpha 5] 2.9 0.4 17.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.4 13.3 4.5 4 3.9 2.4 – 17.4 2[lower-alpha 6] 11.5
Dec 2022 CeDem 28.1[lower-alpha 7] 2.9 1.7 14.2 1.1 2.2 0.9 3.2 0.4 13.1 4.9 4.1 3.3 1.3 0.8 15.2 2.6[lower-alpha 8] 12.9
Sep 2022 Datapraxis/Ipsos 33.1[lower-alpha 9] 2 – 12.3 0.9 – 2.1 2.3 1.6 9.4 10.2[lower-alpha 10] 3.2 6.2 0.7 – 13.6 2.4 19.5
June 2022 CeDem 28.2[lower-alpha 1] 2.6 1.8 14 1.6 – 1 3.8 <1 14.9 4.8 3.3 3.4 2.3 <1 10.9 6.1[lower-alpha 3] 13.3
May 2022 RMA[lower-alpha 4] 23.5[lower-alpha 1] 2.8 <1 17.9 2.3 – 2 8.5 1.5 12.4 9.2 6.4 5.8 <1 <1 3.7[lower-alpha 4] 4[lower-alpha 3] 5.6
Jan 2022 NSPM[lower-alpha 4] 26.4 2.2 <1 15 2.5 11[lower-alpha 4] <1 2.8 1.2 17.1 7.8 3.7 5.6 2.1 – 2.6[lower-alpha 3] 9.3
Dec 2021 CeDem 30.5[lower-alpha 1] 2.4 <1 20.4 1.8 – 2 2.9 19.3 6.2 6.1 4.3 2.4 <1 – 1.7[lower-alpha 3] 8.1
June 2021 CeDem 31[lower-alpha 1] 3.4 1.2 18.7 1.9 4.9[lower-alpha 4] 1.3 3.5 1.6 18.4 6.4 4.4 3 1.8 1.1 – 2.3[lower-alpha 3] 11
Oct 2020 Damar 32.5 3.4 0.8[lower-alpha 11] 28.8 15.8 11[lower-alpha 10] 3.5 2.5 1.6 – 0.1 3.7
Sep 2020 NSPM[lower-alpha 4] 20.8 2.6 – 9.3[lower-alpha 12] 1 4.4 24.5 0.3 3.1 0.8 13.8 11.3[lower-alpha 10] 3.4 2.3 2.1 – 1.6 3.4
Sep 2020 CeDem[lower-alpha 4] 29.2 4.8 0.9[lower-alpha 11] 34.8 14.1 8.3[lower-alpha 10] 3.8 2 1.9 – 2.1 5.6
Sep 2020 CeDem 30.5 5.1 0.7 20.8 1.8 – 0.3 6.6 2.1 14.5 9.2[lower-alpha 10] 3.8 2.3 1.7 0.5 – 2.3 9.7
Aug 2020 Election results 35.1 4.1 1.1[lower-alpha 11] 32.5 12.5 5.5[lower-alpha 10] 3.9 3.1 1.6 – 0.4 2.5
Notes
  1. DPS only
  2. SPP 1.1%, with 4.1% being below 1% of support
  3. Below 1% of support
  4. Hypothetical poll
  5. DPS 28.9%, LP 0.1%
  6. Including HGI 0.5%, S 0.4%
  7. DPS 27.7%, LP 0.4%
  8. PP 0.6%, HGI 0.5%, Civis 0.4%, S 0.3%
  9. DPS 31.8%, LP 1.3%
  10. CnB alliance
  11. In coalition with PD
  12. DNP 4.7%, NSD 3.6%

References
  1. www.antenam.net (31 October 2020). "Stručnjaci u vladi oročeni na godinu". Antena M (in Montenegrin). Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  2. "Ovo je konačan spisak kandidata za Krivokapićevu vladu". CDM.
  3. "Ovo su biografije kandidata za nove ministre". vijesti.me (in Montenegrin). Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  4. Pavićević, Vladimir (30 December 2020). "Kakve promene očekuju crnogorsku političku scenu u novoj godini?". Talas.rs. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  5. "'Open Balkan' could worsen political problems in region – DW – 08/18/2022". dw.com. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  6. "Abazović: Sve regionalne inicijative imaju za cilj da približe Crnu Goru članstvu u EU". vijesti.me (in Montenegrin). Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  7. "Abazović: Regionalnom saradnjom možemo da kreiramo bolju budućnost građana na ZB". Government of Montenegro. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  8. "Ostavka Abazovićeve potpredsjednice zbog Otvorenog Balkana?". RFE/RL.
  9. Tomovic, Dusica (19 August 2022). "Montenegro Government Toppled by No-Confidence Vote". Balkan Insight. Retrieved 22 August 2022.
  10. "Đukanović raspustio Skupštinu". RTCG. 16 March 2023. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
  11. c.f. Art. 94 , Archived 8 September 2020 at the Wayback Machine
  12. Electoral system Archived 24 July 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Inter-parliamentary Union
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