2023 New Zealand general election

The 2023 New Zealand general election to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand is planned to be held on 14 October 2023, after the currently elected 53rd Parliament is dissolved or expires. Voters will elect 120 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members will be elected from single-member electorates and 48 members from closed party lists.

2023 New Zealand general election

14 October 2023

All 120 seats in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Chris Hipkins NZ Labour (cropped).jpg
Chris Luxon portrait (cropped).jpg
Aotearoa New Zealand Green Leadership 2020.jpg
Leader Chris Hipkins Christopher Luxon James Shaw
Marama Davidson
Party Labour National Green
Leader since 22 January 2023 30 November 2021 30 May 2015
8 April 2018
Leader's seat Remutaka Botany List
Last election 65 seats, 50.01% 33 seats, 25.58% 10 seats, 7.86%
Current seats 62 34 9
Seats needed Steady Increase 27 Increase 52

 
David Seymour (cropped).jpg
Leader David Seymour Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi
Party ACT Te Pāti Māori
Leader since 4 October 2014 15 April 2020
28 October 2020
Leader's seat Epsom List
Waiariki
Last election 10 seats, 7.58% 2 seats, 1.17%
Current seats 10 2
Seats needed Increase 51 Increase 59

Incumbent Prime Minister

Chris Hipkins
Labour



At the 2020 election, the centre-left Labour Party, led by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, won an outright majority in the House, the first time under MMP that a party has been able to form a government without needing the support of another party. Nonetheless, Labour formed a co-operation agreement with the Green Party. The main opponent to the Labour government is the centre-right National Party, led by Christopher Luxon, along with ACT New Zealand and Te Pāti Māori.

Background

The previous general election held on 17 October 2020 resulted in a majority for the Labour Party, winning 65 seats, allowing them to continue the Sixth Labour Government unrestricted in the 53rd Parliament. Their coalition partner from the 52nd Parliament, New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate, removing them from Parliament. Confidence and supply partner the Green Party received 10 seats, up two, becoming the first minor party ever to increase their share of the vote following a term in government. In the opposition, the National Party lost 23 seats, giving them a total of 33, and ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten. Te Pāti Māori won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat, returning to Parliament after a one-term absence, having lost all seats in the 2017 election.[1]

In a by-election held on 10 December 2022 National gained one seat from Labour.[2]

Electoral system

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties that meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first-past-the-post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list.[3] If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.[4]

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, no party had won enough votes to win an outright majority of seats, until the landslide 2020 Labour victory, which gave them 65 seats. When no party has commanded a majority, parties have had to negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.[5]

With 120 seats, or 121 seats (with an overhang of one seat), a party, coalition, or minority government with confidence and supply support requires 61 seats for a majority. When there are two overhang seats in Parliament, 62 seats is required; this has happened only once. The Māori Party had two overhang seats in 2008, and one in 2005 and 2011. While other parties have returned to Parliament with less than 5% of the party vote by winning an electorate seat (e.g. ACT in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017), this did not result in overhang seats.

Electorate boundaries for the election will be the same as at the 2020 election, with 65 general electorates (49 in the North Island and 16 in the South Island), and 7 Māori electorates. Boundaries are due to be redrawn in 2024, after the 2023 census.[6]

Election date and schedule

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years.[7] The previous election was held on 17 October 2020.

The governor-general must issue writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current parliament. Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2020 election were returned on 20 November 2020;[8] as a result, the 53rd Parliament must dissolve no later than 20 November 2023. Writs must be issued within seven days,[9] so the last day for issuance of the writs is 27 November 2023. Writs must be returned within 60 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount, death of a candidate, or emergency adjournment),[10] which would be 26 January 2024. Because polling day must be a Saturday,[10] and ten days is required for the counting of special votes,[11] the last possible date for the next election to be held is 13 January 2024.[12]

However, it is widely accepted by political commentators, news media and the Electoral Commission that the next election will be held in late 2023.[13][14][15][16][17][18] News website Stuff, as part of its annual political predictions, predicted that the election would be in November so as not to coincide with the New Zealand co-hosted 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, which finishes in August, and the 2023 Men's Rugby World Cup, which finishes in October.[19]

On 19 January 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced Saturday 14 October 2023 as the election date.[20] The indicative schedule for the election is as follows:[21]

19 January 2023 (Thursday) Prime Minister announces the general election will be held on 14 October.
13 July 2023 (Thursday) Last day to change roll type (general or Māori) for Māori voters[22]
14 July 2023 (Friday) The regulated election advertising period begins.
8 September 2023 (Friday) The 53rd Parliament is dissolved.
10 September 2023 (Sunday) Writ day – Governor-General issues formal direction to the Electoral Commission to hold the election.
Last day to ordinarily enrol to vote (late enrolments must cast special votes).
Official campaigning begins; radio and television advertising begins.
15 September 2023 (Friday) Nominations for candidates close at 12:00 noon.
27 September 2023 (Wednesday) Overseas voting begins.
2 October 2023 (Monday) Advance voting begins.
13 October 2023 (Friday) Advance and overseas voting ends.
Last day to enrol to vote (except in-person at polling places).
The regulated election advertising period ends; all election advertising must be taken down by midnight.
14 October 2023 (Saturday) Election day – polling places open 9:00 am to 7:00 pm.
People may enrol in-person at polling places.
Preliminary election results released progressively after 7:00 pm.
3 November 2023 (Friday) Official election results declared.
9 November 2023 (Thursday) Writ for election returned; official declaration of elected members (subject to judicial recounts).

Parties and candidates

Political parties registered with the Electoral Commission can contest the general election as a party. To register, parties must have at least 500 financial members, an auditor, and an appropriate party name.[23] A registered party may submit a party list to contest the party vote, and can have a party campaign expenses limit in addition to limits on individual candidates' campaigns. Unregistered parties and independents can contest the electorate vote only.[24]

Since the 2020 election, five parties have been deregistered: Mana on 5 May 2021,[25] Advance New Zealand on 19 August 2021,[26] Sustainable NZ on 15 December 2021,[27] New Zealand TEA Party on 21 September 2022,[28] and New Zealand Social Credit Party on 28 February 2023.[29]

Party Leader(s) Founded Ideology 2020 result 2020 seats Current seats
Labour Chris Hipkins1916Social democracy50.01%6562
National Christopher Luxon1936Conservatism, liberalism25.58%3334
Green Marama Davidson / James Shaw1990Green politics, social democracy7.86%109
ACT David Seymour1994Classical liberalism, conservatism7.58%1010
Te Pāti Māori Debbie Ngarewa-Packer / Rawiri Waititi2004Māori rights, tino rangatiratanga1.17%23
NZ First Winston Peters1993Nationalism, populism2.60%00
Opportunities (TOP) Raf Manji2016Radical centrism, environmentalism1.51%00
New Conservative Helen Houghton / Ted Johnston2011Conservatism, right-wing populism1.48%00
Legalise Cannabis Maki Herbert / Michael Appleby1996Cannabis legalisation0.46%00
ONE Ian Johnson / Kariana Black / Allan Cawood2020Christian fundamentalism0.28%00
Vision NZ Hannah Tamaki2019Christian nationalism0.15%00
Outdoors Sue Grey / Donna Pokere-Phillips2015Environmentalism, conspiracism0.11%00
Heartland Mark Ball2020Agrarianism0.03%00
DemocracyNZ Matt King2022Anti-vaccine mandate, conspiracism
Freedoms NZ Brian Tamaki / Sue Grey2022Anti-establishment, big tent
New Nation Michael Jacomb2022Social conservatism

MPs not standing for re-election

Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced
Jacqui Dean National Waitaki 2005–present 20 May 2022[30]
David Bennett National List 2005–present 26 July 2022[31]
Ian McKelvie National Rangitīkei 2011–present
Jan Logie Green List 2011–present 5 December 2022[32]
David Clark Labour Dunedin 2011–present 13 December 2022[33]
Paul Eagle Labour Rongotai 2017–present
Marja Lubeck Labour List 2017–present
William Sio Labour Māngere 2008–present
Jamie Strange Labour Hamilton East 2017–present
Poto Williams Labour Christchurch East 2013–present
Eugenie Sage Green List 2011–present 21 December 2022[34]
Jacinda Ardern Labour Mount Albert 2008–present 19 January 2023[35]
Tāmati Coffey Labour List 2017–present 10 March 2023[36]
Todd Muller National Bay of Plenty 2014–present 17 March 2023[37][38]
Emily Henderson Labour Whangārei 2020–present
Stuart Nash Labour Napier 2008–2011, 2014–present 3 April 2023[39]
Elizabeth Kerekere Independent List 2020–present 5 May 2023[40]

MPs standing for re-election as list-only MPs

Name Party Electorate/List Term in office Date announced Notes
Gerry Brownlee National List 1996–present 2 August 2022[41] Represented Ilam from 1996 until losing at the 2020 election.
Adrian Rurawhe Labour Te Tai Hauāuru 2014–present 26 January 2023[42] Speaker of the House of Representatives
Grant Robertson Labour Wellington Central 2008–present 27 January 2023[43] Minister of Finance
James Shaw Green List 2014–present 2 February 2023[44] Contested Wellington Central at every general election from 2011 to 2020.
Marama Davidson Green List 2015–present 14 April 2023[45] Contested Tāmaki Makaurau at every general election from 2014 to 2020.

Fundraising

On 18 January 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported that the National Party had raised NZ$2.3 million from 24 big donors in 2022 to fund their 2023 election campaign. The ACT Party raised NZ$1.1 million in large donations in 2022. By comparison, the incumbent Labour Party had raised NZ$150,000 during that same period including a NZ$50,000 donation from the family of Les Mills gym owner Phillip Mills. The Green Party raised NZ$122,000 through tithes from co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson. The New Zealand First party received a NZ$35,000 donation from Tom Bowker.[46]

By 1 May, the Christchurch-based Weft Knitting company had donated NZ$100,000 to the Green Party, at the time the largest single election donation in 2023.[47]

Campaigning

National

The National Party has not run candidates in Māori electorates since the 2002 election. In 2019, list MP Jo Hayes expressed a desire to contest Te Tai Hauāuru;[48] leader Judith Collins stated her support in July 2020, but said it would not be possible for the 2020 election due to time constraints.[49] After the election, Collins affirmed the party's intent to contest Māori electorates in 2023.[50][51] After Christopher Luxon replaced Collins as leader, he confirmed that these plans would continue,[52] but stated that it was a "pragmatic" move and that he felt Māori electorates were incompatible with the principle of "one person, one vote".[53] List MP Harete Hipango was the first confirmed candidate, announced in April 2023 to be contesting Te Tai Hauāuru.[54]

In May 2023, Luxon confirmed that National would not work with Te Pāti Māori (Māori Party) if it formed the next government after the 2023 election, citing National's disagreement with the Māori Party's support for co-governance in public services and alleged separatism.[55][56]

Labour

The Labour Party government attacked Nationals record on healthcare.[57]

Greens

The Greens will campaign on climate change, housing, inequality, tax reform, and the cost of living amid tensions between party co-leader Marama Davidson and fellow MP Elizabeth Kerekere.[58]

ACT

ACT has campiagned against gun control.[59]

Maori Party

Labour minister Meka Whaitiri defected to the Maori Party on 3 May 2023.[60]

NZ First

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters says if NZ First is elected to government, New Zealand First would remove Māori names from government departments and bring back English names.[61][62][63][64]

Opinion polls

Graph of opinion polls conducted; smoothing is set to span = 0.65

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the 2023 general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Kantar Public (formerly known as Colmar Brunton) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan Research, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[65]

In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be 'highly unlikely' that National would form government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election.[66] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over "co-governance" and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.[67] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori.[68]

Source Seats in Parliament[lower-roman 1] Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM Total
Newshub–Reid Research[69]
5–11 May 2023 poll
464510145 120 Labour–Green–Māori (61)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[70]
2–7 May 2023 poll
44469165 120 National–ACT (62)
Talbot Mills[71]
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 poll
434712135 120 Hung Parliament
Roy Morgan Research[72]
Apr 2023 poll
404216166 120 Labour–Green–Māori (62)
1 News–Kantar Public[73]
4–8 Mar 2023 poll
464314143 120 Labour–Green–Māori (63)
Horizon Research[74]
23–28 Jan 2023 poll
473912184 120 Labour–Green–Māori (63)
2020 result[75]
17 Oct 2020 election
653310102 120 Labour (65)
  1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

References

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