2023 Turkish presidential election

Presidential elections are being held in Turkey in May 2023, alongside parliamentary elections, to elect a president for a term of five years.[1][2] It is estimated that a total of 64 million voters have the right to cast their votes in elections, 60.9 million in Turkey and 3.2 million abroad.[3] 14 May was chosen as the date for the first round as a testament to the 1950 general election, the first election in Turkey in which the founding and ruling Republican People's Party (CHP) was defeated. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan failed to secure an absolute majority of the vote, so a second round will take place between him and second-place finisher Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu on 28 May.[4]

2023 Turkish presidential election
  • 14 May 2023 (first round)
  • 28 May 2023 (second round)
Opinion polls
 
Candidate Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Party AKP CHP
Alliance People's Alliance Nation Alliance
First round 27,133,837
49.52%		 24,594,932
44.88%
President before election

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
AKP

 Elected President

TBD

Incumbent President Erdoğan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP or AK Party) ran for re-election as the joint candidate of the People's Alliance, which includes the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and three other smaller parties. The Nation Alliance, composed of six opposition parties including the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), fielded CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as its presidential candidate. The Alliance has committed to reverting Turkey's constitution back to a parliamentary system of government, away from the presidential system that has been in place since the 2017 referendum. Though not part of the alliance, the pro-Kurdish Green Left Party (YSP) and the Labour and Freedom Alliance (of which it is a member) endorsed Kılıçdaroğlu.[5] Two other minor candidates, namely Homeland Party leader Muharrem İnce and anti-immigration ultranationalist Ancestral Alliance nominee Sinan Oğan, also reached the required 100,000 signatures to stand; however, three days before the election, İnce withdrew from the election citing consistent slander and smear campaigns against him by rival candidates, though he still appeared on ballots.[6]

The main campaign issues revolved around the deadly February 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquake, which left over 50,000 people dead and threatened to postpone the election date.[7][8] The government was criticised for its slow response to the earthquake and land amnesties prior to it that critics claimed left buildings more vulnerable.[9] The economy, which has suffered a near-continuous crisis since 2018, also featured prominently due to the rapidly rising cost of living. In most polls, voters identified the economy as their prime area of concern.[10]

Campaigning was perceived to be highly divisive and negative, with LGBT rights in Turkey coming under particular fire by the governing alliance.[11][12] Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu claimed that an opposition victory would effectively be considered a coup d'etat,[13] while the headquarters of the opposition Good Party (İYİ) was attacked by gunshots in late March.[14] The Nation Alliance vice-presidential nominee and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was attacked by a mob throwing rocks during a campaign rally in Erzurum,[15] while the CHP Mayor of Antalya Muhittin Böcek was also attacked by pro-Erdoğan supporters during a campaign visit, leading to numerous injuries.[16] Media coverage was deemed excessively biased towards the government alliance, which was estimated to control over 90% of the country's media outlets.[17]

In the first round, Erdoğan and Oğan outperformed expectations to receive 49.5% and 5.2% of the vote respectively. Meanwhile, Kılıçdaroğlu won 44.9%, while Muharrem İnce (who remained on the ballot despite withdrawing) received 0.4%. Since Erdoğan's vote share was 0.5% short of winning outright, he and Kılıçdaroğlu will contest a run-off vote on 28 May.

Background

2018 elections
Main article: 2018 Turkish general election

The previous Turkish general election took place on 24 June 2018. The election marked the country's transition from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, as narrowly endorsed by voters in the controversial 2017 constitutional referendum. That election resulted in a victory for incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had held the position since 2014. Meanwhile, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost its absolute majority in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey for the first time since June 2015, forcing it to rely on its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahçeli, to pass legislation.

Date

The regular scheduled date for the first round of the elections was set for 18 June 2023. However, the electoral system allowed for moving the date forward. In 2020, there was speculation about a snap election prior to the regular one in 2023. At the time, Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of coalition partner MHP, ruled them out. In a written statement, he said that elections would not be held before 2023. He also confirmed that the current coalition between AKP and MHP will remain intact and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be their joint nominee for President.

Discussion on snap elections

In early January 2023 the AKP mentioned eventual snap elections to take place on either on 16 or 30 April or on 14 May.[18] But the so called "Table of Six" composed by six opposition parties announced that they would not agree to snap elections after 6 April.[18] On 18 January 2023, Erdoğan, the President of Turkey, signalled that the elections will be held earlier than the scheduled date, specifically on 14 May 2023, in a symbolic reference to the election victory of former Prime Minister Adnan Menderes on 14 May in the 1950 Turkish general election, defeating the candidate of the then governing CHP party.[19] On 22 January 2023, Erdoğan stated that the elections will be held on 14 May. In view of that date, the "Table of Six" announced that Erdoğan cannot run for president without parliamentary consent.[20]

Discussion on postponing election date

After a devastating earthquake struck the country in February 2023, Erdoğan announced a state of emergency for 10 affected provinces, which would end a week ahead of the election date of the 14 May.[21] The opposition voted against the imposition in parliament.[22] Then on 13 February 2023, Bülent Arınç, a former AKP Member of Parliament, alleged the elections could not be held in the current situation in either May or June, and the elections should be postponed.[22] AKP spokesperson Ömer Çelik responded that Arınç's statement is his own personal view and does not bind the party.[23] Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu from the opposition party Republican People's Party (CHP) responded to Arınç's statement that the constitution would not provide a possibility to postpone the elections except in the case of war.[22] Further, Mustafa Tolga Öztürk from the Good Party reasoned only the parliament has the authority to postpone elections and Selahattin Demirtaş from the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) suspected such a measure would result in a political coup.[22]

Election calendar

The Supreme Election Council announced the following election calendar for the 2023 presidential elections and the parliamentary elections.[24]

  • 18 March: The Supreme Election Council announces the official start of the election cycle.
  • 19 March: Submission of candidacy applications to the Supreme Election Council.
  • 20 March: Independent presidential candidates can apply until 17.00. Applications of independent candidates are examined by the Supreme Election Council and the candidates will be notified if their application is missing documents or other shortcomings as of 23:00.
  • 21 March: Independent presidential candidates whose application has been rejected by the Supreme Election Council, can appeal and request a re-examination until 17:00.
    • Deadline for political parties to nominate a presidential candidate.
  • 28 March: Announcement of the temporary list of presidential candidates and start of appeal applications.
  • 31 March: Announcement of the final list of presidential candidates.
  • 1 April: Presentation of ballot paper with the presidential candidates.
  • 12 April: Finalization of the domestic and international voter registers.
  • 27 April: Start of voting procedures at customs gates and abroad.
  • 9 May: Deadline for voting abroad.
  • 13 May: End of election campaigning and start of election silence at 18:00.
  • 14 May: Voting day. Announcement of the temporary results of the presidential election at 23:59.
  • 19 May: Announcement of the final election results by the Supreme Election Council.

In case of a two-rounded presidential election:

  • 15 May: Start of election campaigning for the second round of the presidential election.
  • 20 May: Start of voting procedures at customs gates and abroad.
  • 24 May: Deadline for voting abroad.
  • 27 May: End of election campaigning and start of election silence at 18:00.
  • 28 May: Voting day. Second round of the presidential election.
  • 29 May: Announcement of the temporary results of the presidential election.
  • 1 June: Announcement of the final results of the presidential election.

Electoral system

The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected. The first direct election to the Turkish presidency was held in 2014, after a referendum in 2007 abolished the previous system under which the head of state was elected by the legislature, the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The President of Turkey is subject to term limits, and may serve at most two times five-year terms.[25] If snap elections were held before the end of the second term, a third term would be permitted.[26][27] Snap elections can be held either with the consent of 60% of the MPs in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey or ordered by presidential decree. Only snap elections via the consent of the Grand National Assembly during a president's second term can allow the president to serve a third term.[28]

Prospective presidential candidates must be at least 40 years old and must have completed higher education. Any political party that has won 5% of the vote in the previous parliamentary election can put forward a candidate, although parties that have not met this threshold can form alliances and field joint candidates as long as their total vote share exceeds 5%. Independents can run if they collect 100,000 signatures from the electorate.[29] The election will overviewed by the Supreme Election Council (YSK).[30]

Candidates
Main article: 2023 Turkish presidential election candidate nominations

Candidates
Sinan Oğan launching his campaign
Ballot paper

On 1 April, after a drawing conducted by the Supreme Electoral Council, the places of four presidential candidates on the ballot paper have been determined as follows:

List of presidential candidates in order they appear on the ballot paper[40][lower-alpha 2]
1 2 3 4
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Muharrem İnce[lower-alpha 1] Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Sinan Oğan
People's Alliance — Nation Alliance Ancestral Alliance
AKP MHP BBP YRP MP CHP İYİ DEVA GP SP DP ZP AP ÜP TÜİP
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign

Nominations

According to the Constitution of Turkey, amended following the 2017 constitutional referendum, any political party that has won 5% of the vote in the previous parliamentary election can put forward a candidate. The remaining candidates were required to collect at least 100,000 signatures.

Voters were able to give signatures to their preferred presidential candidate between 22 and 27 March at their local electoral council branch.

On 24 March, the New Welfare Party decided to join the People's Alliance. After this decision, Fatih Erbakan announced that he had ended the candidacy process in favour of Erdoğan.[41]

Party Candidate Daily signatures Result
22 March[42] 23 March[43] 24 March[44] 25 March[45] 26 March[46] 27 March[47]
Homeland Party Muharrem İnce
28,235
51,367
76,901
Green tickY 104,357
109,745
114,657
Green tickY Nominated
New Welfare Party Fatih Erbakan
27,910
46,725
69,079
69,159
69,200
69,255
Red XN Not nominated
— Sinan Oğan
15,573
25,924
39,317
63,027
Green tickY 102,667
111,502
Green tickY Nominated
Patriotic Party Doğu Perinçek
6,679
11,792
16,192
20,400
23,776
27,055
Red XN Not nominated
— Yakup Türkal
993
1,645
2,031
2,462
2,780
3,137
Red XN Not nominated
— Erkan Trükten
397
755
1,116
1,604
1,940
2,588
Red XN Not nominated
— Ahmet Özal
237
567
807
1,025
1,311
1,544
Red XN Not nominated
Justice Unity Party İrfan Uzun
176
319
447
698
1,001
1,263
Red XN Not nominated
— Halil Murat Ünver
119
211
285
369
444
538
Red XN Not nominated
— Hilmi Özden
60
151
225
333
405
478
Red XN Not nominated
— Davut Turan
34
68
92
106
111
122
Red XN Not nominated
Totals
80,413
139,524
206,494
263,540
313,380
332,139

Endorsements

Parties and alliances
Candidate Endorsement Ideology
Erdoğan
People's Alliance
AKP		 People's Alliance MHP (Nationalist Movement Party)[48] Turkish ultranationalism
BBP (Great Unity Party)[49] Turkish Islamonationalism
YRP (New Welfare Party)[50] Millî Görüş
HÜDAPAR (Free Cause Party)[51] Kurdish Islamism
DSP (Democratic Left Party)[52] Ecevitism
BÜYÜK TÜRKİYE (Great Turkey Party)[53] Pan-Turkism
DYP (True Path Party)[54] Liberal conservatism
YENİ DÜNYA (New World Party)[55] Conservatism
VATAN PARTISİ (Patriotic Party) (second round)[56] Anti-imperialism
Kılıçdaroğlu
Nation Alliance
CHP		 Nation Alliance İYİ PARTİ (Good Party)[33] Turkish nationalism
DEVA (Democracy and Progress Party)[33] Liberal conservatism
GP (Future Party)[33] Conservatism
SAADET (Felicity Party)[57][33] Millî Görüş
DP (Democrat Party)[33] Liberal conservatism
Labour and Freedom Alliance TİP (Workers' Party of Turkey)[58] Socialism
HDP (Peoples' Democratic Party)[59] Regionalism
YSGP (Greens and Left Future)[60] Green politics
EMEP (Labour Party)[61] Communism
EHP (Labourist Movement Party)[61] Communism
TÖP (Social Freedom Party)[61] Communism
Union of Socialist Forces SOL PARTİ (Left Party)[62] Socialism
TKP (Communist Party of Turkey)[63][64] Communism
TKH (Communist Movement of Turkey)[65] Communism
DH (Revolution Movement)[66] Communism
TDP (Party for Change in Turkey)[67] Social democracy
LDP (Liberal Democratic Party)[68][69] Classical liberalism
BTP (Independent Turkey Party)[70] Kemalism
HKP (People's Liberation Party)[71] Communism
MTP (Nationalist Turkey Party)[72] Turkish nationalism
KP (Women's Party)[73] Feminism
TEK PARTİ (Technology Development Party)[74] Liberalism
YEŞİLLER (Green Party)[75] Green politics
DOĞRU PARTİ (The True Party)[76] Kemalism
AP (Justice Party) (second round)[77] Liberal conservatism
Oğan
Ancestral Alliance
Independent		 Ancestral Alliance ZP (Victory Party)[39] Anti-immigration
AP (Justice Party)[39] Liberal conservatism
ÜLKEM (My Country Party)[39] Turkish nationalism
TÜİP (Turkey Alliance Party)[39] Kemalism
ANAP (Motherland Party)[78] Liberal conservatism

Controversies

Erdoğan's right to seek re-election

Before the 2018 elections, Turkish presidents were serving as heads of state within a parliamentary system. After the 2017 constitutional referendum, Turkey adopted a presidential system in which the president serves as the head of government. Some opposition politicians state that since Erdoğan was elected president twice in 2014 and 2018, he cannot be a candidate again unless an early election is called by the Parliament, as stated in Article 116 of the constitution.[20] Some jurists argue that since the presidential system was introduced in 2018 and a new office was formed apart from the similarity in name, the 2018 election was Erdoğan's first term in the new system and that he has the right to be a candidate again.[79][80]

Assassination allegations

On 10 March, CHP parliamentary group deputy chair Özgür Özel claimed that Kılıçdaroğlu received assassination threats by unknown groups and was offered a minister's armoured vehicle by the government, but he rejected the proposal and kept his official car.[81]

On 12 May, extensive security measures were taken before and during Kılıçdaroğlu's rally in Samsun following the rumours of assassination attempts of Kılıçdaroğlu. Citizens who wanted to attend the rally held in Republic Square were searched twice. Snipers were placed on the roofs of buildings located around the square. İmamoğlu and Kılıçdaroğlu, who took the stage to make their speeches, were seen wearing bulletproof vests. While Kılıçdaroğlu was giving his speech, a large guard group accompanied him on the stage armed.[82][83]

Attacks on Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

While visiting the burials of citizens who lost their lives during the earthquake in Adıyaman Province, Kılıçdaroğlu was subjected to a verbal attack while he was reciting Al-Fatiha. The same day, another person attempted a physical attack.[84][85]

Two days after the attack on İmamoğlu, Kılıçdaroğlu's vehicle was attacked with stones in Sakarya. The 15-year-old attacker was released after Kılıçdaroğlu decided not to press charges and he also asked for the anonymity of the child's identity.[86]

Erdoğan's photo on ballot paper

Erdoğan will appear with the same photograph on the ballot paper as the one he used for the presidential elections in 2014 and 2018.[87]

Attacks on Ekrem İmamoğlu

On 7 May, Ekrem İmamoğlu was attacked during a pro-Kılıçdaroğlu rally in Erzurum. His rally was interrupted due to stones thrown from the crowd.[88] The attack came after the Erzurum Metropolitan Municipality, run by the ruling AKP, brought several public buses together in the square where İmamoğlu would hold an election rally to prevent his rally. After the attack, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu shared a video on his Twitter account and said:[89]

There is a militarist (ruling) coalition consisting of mafias, militants, SADAT supporters, drug dealers who killed Sinan Ateş, gangs of five, and Hizbullah. These are the people who attacked our Mayor Ekrem today. Their aim is to scare our people. Turkey is the country of the reasonable majority. The majority will end this evil. My dear citizens. Focus on 14 May (elections). Do not be angry, do not be offended. Love your people, embrace your heart. Get well soon, my son Ekrem. Bringing change to the country has a price, and we are all ready to pay it.[89]

After the attack, İmamoğlu supporters rushed to the Sabiha Gökçen Airport in Istanbul to welcome and show support for him.[89]

Erzurum's mayor Mehmet Sekmen said that there was no written application made from Republican People's Party's provincial chairmanship to hold a rally in Erzurum, and it was İmamoğlu "was the one who created the chaos by rallying in Erzurum".[90]

The Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said that the incident was planned by İmamoğlu to aggravate the crowds.[91][92]

Fake media interference

On the Sunday before the elections Erdoğan showed a faked video at a political rally that purported to show Kılıçdaroğlu followed by footage of Murat Karayılan, one of the founders of the PKK.[93][94] By the following Monday Deutsche Welle investigation found that the video had been fabricated by combining two separate videos.[93]

A few days before the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu and the CHP accused Russia, a known ally of Erdoğan, of foreign electoral interference, claiming it to be the source of many "plots, montages and deepfakes".[95][96] The Russian Government denied the claims.[97][95]

An allegedly fake sex video purporting to portray Muharrem İnce was circulated before he dropped out of the race.[98] İnce claimed that deepfake technology had been used to make the video and stated he had suffered "character assassination" and blamed the country's journalists and public prosecutors for not protecting him from the "fury of slander".[94]

Prior to election day, numerous pro-AKP volunteers were caught distributing fake Kılıçdaroğlu leaflets with fabricated campaign promises that implied that Kılıçdaroğlu was in league with proscribed terrorist organisations.[99]

Block of Ekşi Sözlük

One day before the election, Ekşi Sözlük was blocked from access reasoned as "for the protection of national security and public order".[100] Ekşi Sözlük has then started serving the website from different domains, such as eksisozluk42.com.[101]

Reporting of results

The CHP complained about fake reports of Erdogan leading by the Anadolu Agency and produced its own numbers that held Kilicdaroglu as the leading candidate.[30] After Ömer Çelik of the AKP accused the CHP of trying to seize the will of the nation, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the CHP justified the reports of the oppostion as they had learned from the past.[30] Anadolu is known to show the governing AKP as the leader with a large advantage in the first hours.[30][102]

There were also criticisms directed at the slow pace of counting ballots cast abroad. At the time that 90% of domestic ballots were counted, only 30.8% of ballots from abroad had been counted. Ahmet Yener of the Supreme Election Council said these delays were "normal" and that the increase in the number of ballots and contesting parties slowed counting.[103]

Opinion polls
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Turkish presidential election
See also: Leadership opinion polling for the 2023 Turkish general election

First round
LOESS graph displaying the polls for the 2023 Turkish Presidential election during the official campaign period.
LOESS graph displaying the polls for the 2023 Turkish Presidential election during the official campaign period.

Second round

Preliminary results
CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanJustice and Development Party27,133,83749.52
Kemal KılıçdaroğluRepublican People's Party24,594,93244.88
Sinan OğanIndependent2,831,2085.17
Muharrem İnce[lower-alpha 3]Homeland Party236,0970.43
Total54,796,074100.00
Valid votes54,796,07498.14
Invalid/blank votes1,037,1011.86
Total votes55,833,175100.00
Registered voters/turnout64,190,65186.9864,190,651–
Source: Anadolu

Analysis

As no candidate was able to secure a majority of votes, a runoff will take place between the top two finishers, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, on 28 May.[4] Erdoğan, the incumbent president coming into the election, received 49.52% of the vote, down from 52.59% in the last elections.[104]

See also

Notes
  1. İnce withdrew his candidacy on 11 May 2023, but will remain on the ballot.
  2. Note that alliances and parties do not appear on the official ballot paper.
  3. Withdrew, remained on ballot[6]

References
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