2024 Queensland state election
The 2024 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on 26 October 2024 to elect all members to the Legislative Assembly of Queensland pursuant to the Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015. As a result of the 2016 Queensland term length referendum, the term of the parliament will run for four years.[1][2]
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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly 47 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Electoral system
Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ). The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats (at least 47) will form the government. If no majority emerges then the party or coalition that is able to command the confidence of the Legislative Assembly will form government.
The party or coalition that wins the second highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.
The Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia, composed of the Legislative Assembly. The upper house, the Queensland Legislative Council was abolished in 1922.
Key dates
The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 election held every four years on the last Saturday of October.[3] The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.
Candidates
Crisafulli began announcing LNP candidates 18 months prior to the election.[4]
Retiring members
Labor
- Jim Madden (Ipswich West) – announced retirement on 18 April 2023, citing "ongoing physical and mental health".[5][6]
Electoral pendulum
- Notes
- In 2021 there was a by-election after the passing of Duncan Pegg. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
- In 2022 there was a by-election after Colin Boyce was elected to the seat of Flynn in the 2022 Australian Federal Election. This 2CP vote is based on that by-election result.
Opinion polling
Primary voting graph
Two-party preferred graph
Preferred Premier
Palaszczuk approval ratings
Crisafulli approval ratings
Voting intention
| Date | Polling firm | Size |  |
 |
 |
ON |
KAP |
OTH |
Two-party-preferred | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov[7] | 1,015 | 33% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 2% | — | 49% | 51% | |
| 1–8 December 2022 | YouGov[8] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 13% | 11% | — | 4% | 50% | 50% | |
| 21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic[9] | 924 | 37% | 35% | 11% | 6% | — | — | 53.8% | 46.2% | |
| 23–30 June 2022 | YouGov[10] | ~1,000 | 34% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 50% | 50% | |
| 18–23 February 2022 | YouGov[11] | ~1,000 | 39% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 4% | 52% | 48% | |
| October 2020 election | — | — | 39.57 52 |
35.89 34 |
9.47 2 |
7.12 1 |
2.52 3 |
5.44 1 |
53.2 | 46.8 | |
Some polls do not publish a two-party-preferred result. In these cases, the result has been manually calculated from preference flows at the 2020 election.
Preferred Premier and leadership polling table
| Date | Polling firm | Sample | Preferred Premier | Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palaszczuk | Crisafulli | Don't Know | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't Know | Net | |||
| 30 March – 5 April 2023 | YouGov[7] | 1,015 | 31% | 29% | 40% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1–8 December 2022 | YouGov[8] | ~1,000 | 39% | 28% | 33% | 40% | 41% | 19% | –1% | 31% | 27% | 42% | +4% |
| 21 August – 4 December 2022 | Resolve Strategic[9] | 924 | 42% | 30% | 28% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 23–30 June 2022 | YouGov[10] | ~1,000 | 41% | 28% | 31% | 45% | 30% | 16% | +15% | 31% | 23% | 46% | +8% |
| 18–23 February 2022 | YouGov[11] | ~1,000 | — | — | — | 50% | 36% | 14% | +14% | — | — | — | — |
References
- The Queensland Electoral System Queensland Parliament
- Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes ABC News 5 April 2016
- "Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015" (PDF). www.legislation.qld.gov.au.
- "LNP names candidates 18 months out from Queensland poll". 26 March 2023.
- Dennien, Matt (18 April 2023). "Labor MP to retire from politics amid bullying and quota cloud". Brisbane Times. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- Madden, Jim (18 April 2023). Personal Explanation – Member for Ipswich West (PDF) (Speech). Parliament House, Brisbane: Queensland Parliament. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- McKay, Jack (21 April 2023). "Annastacia Palaszczuk's standing as preferred premier sinks to lowest level since she took up top job". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 22 April 2023.
- "YouGov poll reveals LNP and Labor neck and neck". The Courier Mail. 11 December 2022.
- "Palaszczuk Labor still favoured by voters at political halfway mark". Brisbane Times. 12 December 2022.
- "Palaszczuk shockwaves: Labor's lead obliterated, shock result if election held today". The Courier Mail. 4 July 2022.
- "LNP closing the gap on Labor's lead in the polls, Annastacia Palaszczuk viewed less favourably". The Courier Mail. 25 February 2022.
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| Referendums | |
