2024 Taiwanese presidential election
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Taiwan on 13 January 2024.[1] Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.
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Background
Presidential candidates and Vice Presidential running mates are elected on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post voting. This will be the eighth direct election of the president and vice president, the posts having previously been indirectly elected by the National Assembly until 1996.
Under the Article 22 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and New Power Party (NPP), which received more than five per cent of the total vote share in the latest election at any level, are eligible to contest the election. Registration with the Central Election Commission as the candidates for President and Vice President is filed by the way of political party recommendation where a letter of recommendation stamped with the political party's seal issued by the Ministry of the Interior shall be submitted together with the application. Under Article 23, independent candidates and smaller parties are also eligible to contest, registering as the candidates for President and Vice President by the way of joint signature shall, within five days after the public notice for election is issued, apply to the Central Election Commission for being the presenter recommended by way of joint signature, receive a list of joint signers and to receive 1.5 per cent of the total electors in the latest election of the members of the Legislative Yuan, and pay the deposit of NT$1,000,000.[2]
According to the constitution, the incumbent President, Tsai Ing-wen, who will finish her second full term, is ineligible for re-election.
Nominations
Democratic Progressive Party
Lai Ching-te, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party.[3][4]
Nominees
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Lai Ching-te | TBD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Vice President of the Republic of China (2020–present) |
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Kuomintang
Hou Yu-ih was drafted by the Kuomintang on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency.[5]
Nominees
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Hou Yu-ih | TBD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Mayor of New Taipei (2018–present) |
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Taiwan People's Party
Ko Wen-je, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Taiwan People's Party.[6]
Nominees
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Ko Wen-je | TBD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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for President | for Vice President | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Mayor of Taipei (2014–2022) |
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Declared
- Wang Chien-shien (independent), President of Control Yuan (2008–2014)[7]
- Su Huan-chih (Taiwan Renewal Party), Tainan County Magistrate (2001–2010)[8]
Opinion polling
Multiple candidates per party
Pollster | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lai Ching-te DPP |
Cheng Wen-tsan DPP |
Su Tseng-chang DPP |
Chen Chien-jen DPP |
Eric Chu KMT |
Hou Yu-ih KMT |
Ko Wen-je TPP |
Terry Gou Ind. |
Others/Invalid |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z.Media | 8-10 November 2022 | 1,072 | 23.2% | — | — | 3.4% | 5.5% | 16.6% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 20% |
Z.Media | 17-18 October 2022 | 1,073 | 21.9% | 2.8% | 6.4% | 16.9% | 12.1% | 21.6% | 18.3% | ||
Z.Media | 12-13 September 2022 | 1,073 | 23.2% | 2.6% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 9.7% | 19.1% | 19.5% | ||
Z.Media | 27-28 July 2022 | 1,072 | 23.8% | 3.3% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 12.2% | 19.9% | 16.8% | ||
Formosa | 21-22 June 2022 | 1,071 | 33.0% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 19.8% | 17.9% | — | 16.8% | ||
Z.Media | 7-9 June 2022 | 1,071 | 22.3% | 3.7% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 11.9% | 20.8% | 16.1% | ||
Formosa | 20-21 April 2022 | 1,071 | 30.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 22.2% | 10.6% | — | 24.4% | ||
Formosa | 16-17 February 2022 | 1,075 | 35.0% | 3.7% | — | 5.2% | 21.9% | 14.3% | 19.9% | ||
Formosa | 22-23 December 2021 | 1,072 | 30.6% | 4.3% | — | 4.5% | 22.0% | 14.1% | 24.5% | ||
Formosa | 25-26 October 2021 | 1,074 | 25.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 23.0% | 14.2% | 21.8% | |||
Formosa | 25-26 August 2021 | 1,077 | 25.1% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 22.9% | 15.9% | 21.9% | |||
Formosa | 23-24 June 2021 | 1,075 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 22.3% | 17.8% | 24.2% | |||
Formosa | 21-22 April 2021 | 1,072 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 22.5% | 10.8% | 23.6% |
Single candidate per party
Pollster | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lai Ching-te | Cheng Wen-tsan | Chen Chien-jen | Ko Wen-je | Eric Chu | Hou Yu-ih | Han Kuo-yu | Terry Gou Ind. |
No one/Invalid | Undecided | Don't know/Refused to answer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DPP | TPP | KMT | |||||||||||
Formosa | 21-22 December 2022 | 1,072 | 42.6% | — | — | 24.3% | 12.8% | — | — | — | 20.3% | — | — |
34.1% | — | — | 12.7% | — | 39.9% | — | — | 13.3% | — | — | |||
TPOF | 12-13 December 2022 | 1,070 | — | 17.9% | — | 20.2% | — | 43.6% | — | — | — | 10.9% | 7.5% |
TPOF | 12-13 December 2022 | 1,070 | 29.0% | — | — | 17.8% | — | 38.7% | — | — | — | 8.1% | 6.4% |
Formosa | 29-30 November 2022 | 1,073 | 42.2% | — | — | 23.6% | 11.1% | — | — | — | 23.2% | — | — |
34.3% | — | — | 13.5% | — | 33.8% | — | — | 18.3% | — | — | |||
ettoday | 27-28 November 2022 | 1,108 | 34.7% | — | — | 36.1% | 12.1% | — | — | — | 7.2% | — | 10% |
29.4% | — | — | 23.2% | — | 35.4% | — | — | 4.1% | — | 8.0% | |||
33.1% | — | — | 27.7% | — | — | 25.9% | — | 4.6% | — | 8.7% | |||
31.7% | — | — | 22.6% | — | — | — | 32.0% | 5.8% | — | 7.9% | |||
— | 24.3% | — | 37.8% | 16.7% | — | — | — | — | — | 21.2% | |||
— | 22.6% | — | 25.1% | — | 39.7% | — | — | — | — | 12.6% | |||
— | 20.6% | — | 24.5% | — | — | — | 39.7% | 8.5% | — | 7.4% | |||
— | — | 27.2% | 37.4% | 15.5% | — | — | — | 10.1% | — | 9.8% | |||
— | — | 21.9% | 25.0% | — | 39.1% | — | — | 6.2% | — | 7.8% | |||
— | — | 27.2% | 30.7% | — | — | 26.2% | — | 8.5% | — | 7.4% | |||
— | — | 22.7% | 24.0% | — | — | — | 38.0% | 7.9% | — | 7.4% | |||
ettoday | 29-30 October 2022 | 1,419 | 35.5% | — | — | 26.4% | 10.7% | — | — | — | 7.2% | 18.4% | 1.8% |
31.5% | — | — | 21.7% | — | 23.4% | — | — | 19.8% | — | 3.6% | |||
34.7% | — | — | 23.7% | — | — | 20.4% | — | 3.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | |||
Formosa | 24-25 October 2022 | 1,072 | 46.0% | — | — | 27.1% | 10.1% | — | — | — | 16.8% | — | — |
37.8% | — | — | 18.6% | — | 29.5% | — | — | 14.0% | — | — | |||
Formosa | 23-26 September 2022 | 1,076 | 29.9% | — | — | 20.9% | — | 27.3% | — | — | 14.0% | — | — |
Formosa | 24-25 August 2022 | 1,072 | 42.6% | — | — | 31.1% | 9.6% | — | — | — | 16.7% | — | — |
37.1% | — | — | 19.0% | — | 29.5% | — | — | 14.4% | — | — | |||
Formosa | 21-22 June 2022 | 1,071 | 48.8% | — | — | 30.5% | 7.4% | — | — | — | 13.3% | — | — |
41.5% | — | — | 19.6% | — | 28.0% | — | — | 10.9% | — | — | |||
ettoday | 23-25 February 2022 | 1,209 | 37.2% | — | — | 22.3% | — | 28.0% | — | — | 3.8% | — | 8.7% |
39.9% | — | — | 20.2% | — | — | — | 27.6% | 3.7% | — | 8.5% | |||
— | 23.8% | — | 24.1% | — | 34.9% | — | — | 7.5% | — | 9.7% | |||
— | 26.4% | — | 21.5% | — | — | — | 35.4% | 6.4% | — | 10.3% | |||
ettoday | 17-19 October 2021 | 1,833 | 38.6% | — | — | 25.5% | 20.3% | — | — | — | 13.1% | — | 12.3% |
35.5% | — | — | 21.0% | — | 30.3% | — | — | 4.6% | — | 8.6% | |||
— | 32.9% | — | 28.3% | 21.2% | — | — | — | 8.2% | — | 9.4% | |||
— | 28.9% | — | 22.6% | — | 33.5% | — | — | 5.8% | — | 9.2% | |||
CAPOR | 27 July-1 August 2021 | 1,088 | 27.5% | — | — | 27.2% | 21.3% | — | — | — | 9.4% | 4.7% | 9.8% |
24.2% | — | — | 19.0% | — | 34.9% | — | — | 6.3% | 5.5% | 10.0% | |||
— | 20.9% | — | 30.0% | 21.9% | — | — | — | 11.0% | 5.5% | 10.6% | |||
— | 18.3% | — | 21.0% | — | 37.5% | — | — | 8.5% | 5.1% | 9.5% |
Notes
References
- "Taiwan sets next presidential election for January 2024". Nikkei Asia. 11 March 2023. Retrieved 18 March 2023.
- "Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act". Laws & Regulations Database of the Republic of China (Taiwan). Retrieved 31 March 2023.
- "VP Lai runs in DPP primary, vows to safeguard Taiwan amid China threat". Focus Taiwan. 15 March 2023. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
- "Registration for DPP presidential primary closes with Lai Ching-te as sole registrant". FTV News. 17 March 2023. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
- "侯侯選總統/宣布了!朱立倫徵召侯友宜參選2024". United Daily News. 17 May 2023.
- "民眾黨公告總統選舉提名柯文哲參選". United Daily News. 17 May 2023. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
- "Former Control Yuan chief announces bid for Taiwan presidency". Taiwan News. 28 March 2023. Retrieved 29 March 2023.
- "要把台灣變成福利均富東方瑞士國 蘇煥智宣布參選總統" (in Chinese (Taiwan)). 菱傳媒. 28 April 2023. Retrieved 30 April 2023.