2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky

The 2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose eight electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Kentucky

November 6, 2012
Turnout59.70%[1]Decrease
 
Nominee Mitt Romney Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Illinois
Running mate Paul Ryan Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,087,190 679,370
Percentage 60.49% 37.80%

County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Romney carried Kentucky by a landslide margin, winning 60.49% of the vote to Obama's 37.80%. This represented a margin of 22.69%, a great improvement for the Republican Party from 2008, when they won with a 16.23% margin. Although Kentucky had been won by Southern Democrat Bill Clinton twice in the 1990s, Obama was seen as a poor cultural fit for the state, and he did not compete here either time he ran. The Romney campaign also attacked Obama's administration as being hostile to the coal industry, historically an important part of the state's economy. Consequently, Obama suffered a historically poor showing in the traditionally staunchly Democratic coalfields of Eastern Kentucky, where many counties that had even voted by wide margins for landslide Democratic losers like George McGovern and Walter Mondale defected to the Republicans in 2012. Knott County, which had given Clinton 73% of the vote in 1996 and nearly 72% to Mondale in 1984 (despite the latter losing nationally by more than 18 percentage points and only carrying one state), gave Romney 73% of the vote in 2012. Even Elliott County, the only county in the state in which Obama had broken 60% in 2008, barely held on in 2012, giving Obama a narrow plurality win, his only victory in the region, and one of just four county wins in the entire state. Wolfe County, which had returned to the Democratic Party in 2004 and 2008 after casting its first-ever Republican vote for George W. Bush in 2000, went for Romney by over twenty points. As such, Obama became the first Democrat to ever win the White House without carrying Wolfe County since its founding in 1860, Menifee County since its founding in 1869, or Henderson County since the founding of the Republican Party.

The only part of the state where Obama won convincingly was Jefferson County, the most urban and populous county in the state, and home to Louisville. He also eked out a close win in Fayette County, the second-most populous county, home to Lexington. Despite losing five counties he won in 2008, he managed to flip Franklin County, home to the state capital of Frankfort, which he had narrowly lost in 2008. This is the last time Elliott and Franklin Counties voted for a Democrat. Obama is the only Democrat to ever win two terms without carrying the state at least once.

Primaries

Democratic

Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012

May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22)
 
Candidate Barack Obama Uncommited
Home state Illinois n/a
Delegate count 39 34
Popular vote 119,293 86,925
Percentage 57.85% 42.15%

Kentucky results by county
  Barack Obama
  Uncommited
  Tie

Barack Obama's only "opponent" in the primary was the "Uncommited" ballot option, which garnered more than 42% of the primary vote, making Kentucky one of Obama's worst contested primary results.[2]

Kentucky Democratic primary, 2012[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Barack Obama 119,293 57.85% 39
Uncommitted 86,925 42.15% 34

Republican

Kentucky Republican primary, 2012

May 22, 2012 (2012-05-22)
 
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum
Home state Massachusetts Texas Pennsylvania
Delegate count 42 0 0
Popular vote 117,621 22,074 15,629
Percentage 66.77% 12.53% 8.87%

 
Candidate Newt Gingrich Uncommited
Home state Georgia N/A
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 10,479 10,357
Percentage 5.95% 5.88%

Kentucky results by county
  Mitt Romney
(Note: Italicization indicates a withdrawn candidacy)

The Republican primary occurred on May 22, 2012.[4][5] 42 delegates were chosen, all of which were allocated to and pledged to vote for Mitt Romney at the 2012 Republican National Convention. Three delegates remain unpledged to any candidate. All Republicans in Kentucky were allowed to participate in the primary. A Republican primary was also held in Arkansas on this day.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich withdrew from the presidential race on April 10 and May 2, 2012, respectively. Both endorsed Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee.

Kentucky Republican primary, 2012[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Mitt Romney 117,621 66.8% 42
Ron Paul 22,074 12.53% 0
Rick Santorum 15,629 8.87% 0
Newt Gingrich 10,479 5.95% 0
Uncommitted 10,357 5.88% 0
Unpledged delegates: 3
Total: 176,160 100.00% 45
Key:Withdrew prior to contest

General election

Results

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2012[7]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,087,190 60.49% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 679,370 37.80% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 17,063 0.95% 0
Independent Randall Terry Missy Smith 6,872 0.38% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 6,337 0.35% 0
Others 380 0.02% 0
Totals 1,797,212 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (registered voters) 59.24%

By county

County Barack H. Obama W. Mitt Romney Others Margin Total
# %# %# %# %
Adair1,66021.84%5,84176.86%991.30%4,181 55.01% 7,600
Allen1,80825.47%5,18473.02%1071.51%3,376 47.56% 7,099
Anderson3,31532.13%6,82266.12%1811.75%3,507 33.99% 10,318
Ballard1,18930.53%2,64767.96%591.51%1,458 37.43% 3,895
Barren5,40032.60%10,92265.93%2431.47%5,522 33.34% 16,565
Bath1,77042.94%2,27555.19%771.87%505 12.25% 4,122
Bell2,22423.45%7,12775.16%1311.38%4,903 51.71% 9,482
Boone15,62829.77%35,92068.43%9471.80%20,292 38.66% 52,495
Bourbon3,07538.88%4,69259.32%1421.80%1,617 20.45% 7,909
Boyd7,77640.84%10,88357.16%3812.00%3,107 16.32% 19,040
Boyle4,47136.15%7,70362.28%1941.57%3,232 26.13% 12,368
Bracken1,14735.51%2,02962.82%541.67%882 27.31% 3,230
Breathitt1,56231.19%3,31866.25%1282.56%1,756 35.06% 5,008
Breckinridge2,82535.46%5,02563.07%1171.47%2,200 27.61% 7,967
Bullitt9,97131.38%21,30667.05%4981.57%11,335 35.67% 31,775
Butler1,29325.56%3,71673.47%490.97%2,423 47.90% 5,058
Caldwell1,85231.60%3,90466.62%1041.77%2,052 35.02% 5,860
Calloway5,31435.28%9,43862.65%3122.07%4,124 27.38% 15,064
Campbell15,08037.54%24,24060.34%8532.12%9,160 22.80% 40,173
Carlisle75028.64%1,83570.06%341.30%1,085 41.43% 2,619
Carroll1,62944.27%1,99954.32%521.41%370 10.05% 3,680
Carter3,38337.99%5,27959.27%2442.74%1,896 21.29% 8,906
Casey1,08617.83%4,90480.51%1011.66%3,818 62.68% 6,091
Christian8,25237.59%13,47561.38%2261.03%5,223 23.79% 21,953
Clark5,22833.93%9,93164.45%2511.63%4,703 30.52% 15,410
Clay1,11115.05%6,17683.65%961.30%5,065 68.60% 7,383
Clinton75217.12%3,56981.24%721.64%2,817 64.12% 4,393
Crittenden96024.91%2,83973.66%551.43%1,879 48.75% 3,854
Cumberland59921.00%2,21677.67%381.33%1,617 56.68% 2,853
Daviess16,20838.52%25,09259.63%7791.85%8,884 21.11% 42,079
Edmonson1,37429.46%3,23269.30%581.24%1,858 39.84% 4,664
Elliott1,18649.44%1,12646.94%873.63%-60 -2.50% 2,399
Estill1,35626.16%3,74972.32%791.52%2,393 46.16% 5,184
Fayette62,07849.34%60,79348.32%2,9502.34%-1,285 -1.02% 125,821
Fleming1,91133.05%3,78065.38%911.57%1,869 32.32% 5,782
Floyd4,73331.79%9,78465.71%3732.51%5,051 33.92% 14,890
Franklin11,53549.43%11,34548.61%4571.96%-190 -0.81% 23,337
Fulton1,02241.19%1,42557.44%341.37%403 16.24% 2,481
Gallatin1,23840.46%1,75857.45%642.09%520 16.99% 3,060
Garrard1,66123.47%5,31075.03%1061.50%3,649 51.56% 7,077
Grant2,81032.65%5,66465.81%1321.53%2,854 33.16% 8,606
Graves4,54729.35%10,69969.06%2471.59%6,152 39.71% 15,493
Grayson2,74429.60%6,40469.09%1211.31%3,660 39.49% 9,269
Green1,16523.99%3,63474.84%571.17%2,469 50.84% 4,856
Greenup6,02739.76%8,85558.41%2771.83%2,828 18.66% 15,159
Hancock1,83344.35%2,21253.52%882.13%379 9.17% 4,133
Hardin15,21438.80%23,35759.57%6411.63%8,143 20.77% 39,212
Harlan1,83017.17%8,65381.19%1751.64%6,823 64.02% 10,658
Harrison2,47134.50%4,55663.60%1361.90%2,085 29.11% 7,163
Hart2,28334.48%4,25664.28%821.24%1,973 29.80% 6,621
Henderson8,09143.47%10,29655.31%2271.22%2,205 11.85% 18,614
Henry2,53038.42%3,94059.83%1151.75%1,410 21.41% 6,585
Hickman68632.07%1,43166.90%221.03%745 34.83% 2,139
Hopkins5,78929.29%13,68169.22%2951.49%7,892 39.93% 19,765
Jackson61812.20%4,36586.15%841.66%3,747 73.95% 5,067
Jefferson186,17954.84%148,42343.72%4,9221.45%-37,756 -11.12% 339,524
Jessamine6,00129.10%14,23269.02%3871.88%8,231 39.92% 20,620
Johnson1,72319.07%7,09578.53%2172.40%5,371 59.44% 9,036
Kenton24,91736.82%41,38761.15%1,3752.03%16,470 24.34% 67,679
Knott1,42024.94%4,13072.55%1432.51%2,710 47.60% 5,693
Knox2,48422.38%8,46776.28%1491.34%5,983 53.90% 11,100
LaRue1,73330.07%3,91167.85%1202.08%2,178 37.79% 5,764
Laurel3,90617.43%18,15181.00%3521.57%14,245 63.57% 22,409
Lawrence1,52027.18%3,99571.44%771.38%2,475 44.26% 5,592
Lee59522.68%1,97775.37%511.94%1,382 52.69% 2,623
Leslie4338.75%4,43989.68%781.58%4,006 80.93% 4,950
Letcher1,70219.43%6,81177.77%2452.80%5,109 58.34% 8,758
Lewis1,34228.14%3,32669.74%1012.12%1,984 41.60% 4,769
Lincoln2,58228.21%6,41670.10%1541.68%3,834 41.89% 9,152
Livingston1,34629.84%3,08968.48%761.68%1,743 38.64% 4,511
Logan3,46933.01%6,89965.65%1411.34%3,430 32.64% 10,509
Lyon1,37335.77%2,41262.85%531.38%1,039 27.07% 3,838
Madison11,51234.55%21,12863.42%6772.03%9,616 28.86% 33,317
Magoffin1,43329.21%3,39169.12%821.67%1,958 39.91% 4,906
Marion3,41846.72%3,80051.94%981.34%382 5.22% 7,316
Marshall5,02231.96%10,40266.20%2901.85%5,380 34.24% 15,714
Martin57415.01%3,18083.14%711.86%2,606 68.13% 3,825
Mason2,59237.70%4,19460.99%901.31%1,602 23.30% 6,876
McCracken10,06232.95%19,97965.42%4991.63%9,917 32.47% 30,540
McCreary1,06918.74%4,56480.01%711.24%3,495 61.27% 5,704
McLean1,43234.10%2,70564.40%631.50%1,273 30.31% 4,200
Meade4,12237.76%6,60660.52%1871.71%2,484 22.76% 10,915
Menifee1,04840.34%1,48457.12%662.54%436 16.78% 2,598
Mercer2,96629.85%6,82068.64%1501.51%3,854 38.79% 9,936
Metcalfe1,42534.06%2,67663.96%831.98%1,251 29.90% 4,184
Monroe93619.72%3,76279.27%481.01%2,826 59.54% 4,746
Montgomery3,70136.11%6,39862.43%1491.45%2,697 26.32% 10,248
Morgan1,36930.61%3,02167.55%821.83%1,652 36.94% 4,472
Muhlenberg4,77137.46%7,76260.94%2041.60%2,991 23.48% 12,737
Nelson7,61141.07%10,67357.59%2481.34%13,602 45.78% 28,532
Nicholas94836.74%1,58361.36%491.90%635 24.61% 2,580
Ohio2,98730.97%6,47067.07%1891.96%3,483 36.11% 9,646
Oldham9,24030.93%20,17967.55%4541.52%10,939 36.62% 29,873
Owen1,50132.95%2,97165.23%831.82%1,470 32.27% 4,555
Owsley28317.91%1,27980.95%181.14%996 63.04% 1,580
Pendleton1,85933.59%3,55664.26%1192.15%1,697 30.66% 5,534
Perry2,04719.99%8,04078.52%1531.49%5,993 58.53% 10,240
Pike5,64523.89%17,58974.43%3981.68%11,944 50.54% 23,632
Powell1,62036.48%2,72661.38%952.14%1,106 24.90% 4,441
Pulaski4,97619.14%20,71479.66%3131.20%15,738 60.52% 26,003
Robertson34036.36%57961.93%161.71%239 25.56% 935
Rockcastle1,09717.65%5,02880.89%911.46%3,931 63.24% 6,216
Rowan3,43844.99%4,03552.81%1682.20%597 7.81% 7,641
Russell1,44518.27%6,34680.26%1161.47%4,901 61.98% 7,907
Scott7,53236.63%12,67961.65%3541.72%5,147 25.03% 20,565
Shelby6,63435.55%11,79063.19%2351.26%5,156 27.63% 18,659
Simpson2,65037.38%4,35561.43%841.18%1,705 24.05% 7,089
Spencer2,54930.23%5,72667.92%1561.85%3,177 37.68% 8,431
Taylor3,28430.00%7,55168.98%1111.01%4,267 38.98% 10,946
Todd1,40329.74%3,24768.82%681.44%1,844 39.08% 4,718
Trigg2,11531.38%4,52067.06%1051.56%2,405 35.68% 6,740
Trimble1,35538.28%2,13360.25%521.47%778 21.98% 3,540
Union1,94132.49%3,95266.14%821.37%2,011 33.66% 5,975
Warren16,80538.29%26,38460.12%7001.59%9,579 21.83% 43,889
Washington1,66931.99%3,49566.98%541.03%2,726 44.56% 6,118
Wayne1,85525.73%5,28973.36%660.92%3,434 47.63% 7,210
Webster1,76532.27%3,60765.94%981.79%842 18.84% 4,470
Whitley2,68320.53%10,23278.30%1531.17%7,549 57.77% 13,068
Wolfe97638.14%1,54260.26%411.60%566 22.12% 2,559
Woodford4,88339.60%7,21958.54%2301.87%2,336 18.94% 12,332
Total679,36337.81%1,087,13360.50%30,2721.68%407,770 22.69% 1,796,768
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Romney won 5 of 6 congressional districts.[8]

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 66.4% 32.1% Ed Whitfield
2nd 63.28% 35.15% Brett Guthrie
3rd 42.8% 55.73% John Yarmuth
4th 63.38% 34.83% Thomas Massie
5th 75% 23.25% Hal Rogers
6th 55.8% 42.16% Andy Barr

Analysis

On election night, Kentucky went as expected to the Republican candidate Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney over Incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama of bordering Illinois. Obama was reelected but nonetheless, lost Kentucky. In most recent years Democrats have maintained their lead in registered voters compared to Republicans.[9] However, Kentucky is known as a highly conservative state with a populist streak. In most recent presidential elections in Kentucky, Democrats usually achieve lower 40 or upper 30% margins. Obama performed significantly worse in 2012 than he did in 2008. Appalachian Kentucky used to be a place were Democrats thrived because of working-class people, particularly unionized coal miners.[10] However this region has become more and more Republican in recent years. Romney performed, for the most part, very well statewide. Obama won four counties. Obama was however able to maintain a solid performance in perhaps the most Democratic place in the state, Jefferson County (Louisville Metro). The other counties Obama won were Franklin, Elliott and Fayette.

See also

References

  1. "Summary TXT file".
  2. Dougherty, Michael Brendan (2012-05-22). "Obama Is Getting Humiliated In The Kentucky Primary, 40 Percent Of Democrats Voted For 'Uncommitted'". Business Insider. Retrieved 2019-07-09.
  3. "Kentucky Secretary of State" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. May 22, 2012. Retrieved June 19, 2016.
  4. "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  5. "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  6. "Kentucky State Board of Elections".
  7. "Kentucky State Board of Elections". Kentucky State Board of Elections.
  8. "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved 11 August 2020.
  9. "Registration Statistics – State Board of Elections". elect.ky.gov. Archived from the original on 2018-01-01. Retrieved 2017-12-02.
  10. "Appalachia Used To Be A Democratic Stronghold. Here's How To Make It One Again". Retrieved 2017-12-02.
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