2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary
The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.
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16 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Vermont |
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Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote.[1] However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count.
Polling
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump32.34% | John Kasich30.01% | Marco Rubio19.08% | Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27% |
| Castleton University/Vermont
Public Radio[2] Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118 |
February 3–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32.4% |
Marco Rubio
16.9% |
Ted Cruz
10.5% |
John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1% |
Results
| Candidate | Vote[3] | Delegates[4] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | ||
| Donald Trump | 19,974 | 32.52 | 8 |
| John Kasich | 18,534 | 30.17 | 8 |
| Marco Rubio | 11,781 | 19.18 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 5,932 | 9.66 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 2,551 | 4.15 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 1,106 | 1.80 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 423 | 0.69 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 361 | 0.59 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 212 | 0.35 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 164 | 0.27 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 390 | 0.63 | 0 |
| Total valid votes | 61,428 | 100% | 16 |
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.
Analysis
Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests.[5] Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%.[6] Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.
Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.
References
- Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (2016-03-01). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-06-19.
- "The VPR Poll: The Races, The Issues And The Full Results". The Castleton Polling Institute. 22 February 2016. Retrieved 23 February 2016.
- "VT Elections Database » 2016 President Republican Primary". VT Elections Database. Retrieved 2020-06-17.
- "Vermont Republican Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved 2020-06-17.
- Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2022-06-19.
- "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2022-06-19.