2023 Extremaduran regional election

The 2023 Extremaduran regional election will be held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. The election will be held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2023 Extremaduran regional election
28 May 2023
All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura
33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered889,549 1.2%
 
Leader Guillermo Fernández Vara María Guardiola Fernando Baselga
Party PSOE PP CS
Leader since 20 September 2006 16 July 2022 6 February 2023
Leader's seat Badajoz Cáceres Badajoz
Last election 34 seats, 46.8% 20 seats, 27.5% 7 seats, 11.1%
Current seats 34 20 7
Seats needed In majority 13 26
 
Leader Irene de Miguel
Party Podemos–IU–AV
Leader since 27 November 2018
Leader's seat Cáceres
Last election 4 seats, 7.2%
Current seats 4
Seats needed 29
Incumbent President

Guillermo Fernández Vara
PSOE


Overview

Electoral system

The Assembly of Extremadura is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Assembly is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.[2] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.[3]

The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies are also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they run candidates in both districts and reach five percent regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency is entitled the following seats:[5]

Seats Constituencies
36 Badajoz
29 Cáceres

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 25 June 2023.[1][4][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]

The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), setting the election date for 28 May.[5]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.[7][8]

Parliamentary composition in April 2023
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 34 34
People's Parliamentary Group PP 20 20
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry
Parliamentary Group		 CS 7 7
United for Extremadura
Parliamentary Group		 Podemos 2 4
IU 1
eX 1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PSOE
List
 Guillermo Fernández Vara Social democracy 46.77% 34 checkY [9]
PP
List
 María Guardiola Conservatism
Christian democracy		 27.48% 20 ☒N [10]
[11]
CS
List
 Fernando Baselga Liberalism 11.11% 7 ☒N [12]
[13]
Podemos–
IU–AV
List
 Irene de Miguel Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism		 7.20% 4 ☒N [14]
Vox
List
 Ángel Pelayo Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism		 4.71% 0 ☒N [15]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary
Local regression trend line of poll results from 26 May 2019 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PSOE PP CS Vox JUEx L Lead
Data10/OKDiario[p 1] 12–15 May 2023 1,500 ? 42.2
29		 37.8
27		 1.7
0		 6.3
4		 8.8
5		 – – – 4.4
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 2] 8–14 May 2023 ? ? 41.8
29/30		 37.2
26/27		 2.3
0		 6.4
3/4		 8.8
5/6		 – – – 4.6
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 3][p 4] 4–10 May 2023 600 ? 43.0
31		 35.9
25		 1.8
0		 6.8
4		 9.4
5		 – 2.2
0		 – 7.1
GAD3/ABC[p 5] 28 Apr–3 May 2023 1,004 ? 40.3
29/30		 37.4
27/28		 1.6
0		 6.8
3/4		 8.6
4/5		 – – – 2.9
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 6][p 7] 26 Apr–3 May 2023 600 ? 42.8
31		 36.0
25		 1.8
0		 6.9
4		 9.4
5		 – 2.2
0		 – 6.8
Ágora Integral/El Periódico[p 8] 27 Apr–2 May 2023 1,200 ? 42.8
29/31		 36.5
25/27		 0.5
0		 6.2
4		 7.3
5		 – 4.8
0/1		 – 6.3
CIS[p 9][p 10] 10–26 Apr 2023 743 ? 40.6
28/29		 35.9
24/26		 1.5
0		 10.3
4/8		 8.6
5/6		 – – – 4.7
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 11][p 12] 19–25 Apr 2023 600 ? 42.8
30		 35.7
25		 1.9
0		 6.7
4		 9.4
6		 – 2.4
0		 – 7.1
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 13] 12–19 Apr 2023 600 ? 39.4
28/29		 34.2
24/25		 2.5
0		 7.4
5/6		 9.0
6/7		 – 3.3
0		 2.2
0/1		 5.2
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 14][p 15] 12–18 Apr 2023 600 ? 42.9
30		 35.3
25		 2.1
0		 6.4
4		 9.8
6		 – 2.4
0		 – 7.6
Data10/OKDiario[p 16] 11–14 Apr 2023 1,500 ? 42.8
30		 37.5
26		 2.1
0		 5.9
4		 8.1
5		 – – – 5.3
IMOP/El Confidencial[p 17] 10–13 Apr 2023 822 70 42.4
30		 33.6
24		 2.5
0		 6.8
4		 10.5
7		 – – – 8.8
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 18][p 19] 5–11 Apr 2023 600 ? 43.8
31		 33.8
23		 1.9
0		 5.9
4		 10.9
7		 – 2.6
0		 – 10.0
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 20] 27 Mar–11 Apr 2023 1,500 ? ?
31		 ?
26		 ?
0		 ?
4		 ?
4		 – – – ?
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 21] 3–7 Apr 2023 1,200 ? 41.2
29/30		 37.7
26/27		 2.0
0		 6.6
3		 8.9
6		 – – – 3.5
ElectoPanel/El Plural[p 22][p 23] 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 600 ? 43.7
31		 33.8
23		 1.8
0		 5.8
4		 10.7
7		 – 2.9
0		 – 9.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 24] 10–17 Mar 2023 ? 71.0 43.5
30		 37.3
27		 – 6.6
4		 6.9
4		 – – – 6.2
KeyData/Público[p 25] 15 Mar 2023 ? 73.0 42.2
30		 35.9
26		 2.8
0		 6.5
4		 7.2
5		 – – – 6.3
Data10/OKDiario[p 26] 13–15 Feb 2023 1,500 ? 42.4
29		 37.7
27		 2.2
0		 6.1
4		 7.8
5		 – – – 4.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 27] 30 Nov–5 Dec 2022 900 ? 41.2
29/30		 35.4
26/27		 4.5
0/1		 7.6
4/5		 6.9
4		 – – – 5.8
CIS[lower-alpha 1][p 28][p 29] 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 242 ? 36.9
24/32		 41.4
26/35		 1.0
0/2		 7.3
0/6		 4.4
0/5		 – – – 4.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 30] 1 Oct–13 Nov 2022 303 ? 43.3
30		 31.5
23		 1.5
0		 5.4
3		 13.5
9		 – 3.6
0		 – 11.8
GAD3/PP[p 31][p 32] 26–31 Oct 2022 802 ? 41.9
29/30		 37.5
27/28		 2.5
0		 5.5
3/4		 6.7
4/5		 – – – 4.4
Celeste-Tel/PSOE[p 33] 21 Sep–10 Oct 2022 1,800 72.6 45.2
31/33		 33.5
23/25		 4.3
0		 6.6
4		 7.8
5		 0.9
0		 – – 11.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 34] 30 Mar 2021 400 ? 45.4
32		 31.9
23		 3.5
0		 5.5
3		 11.4
7		 – – – 13.5
SyM Consulting[p 35] 12–14 Mar 2021 1,437 71.3 51.4
37/38		 28.4
20/21		 2.7
0		 4.9
1		 9.2
5/7		 – – – 23.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 36][p 37] 1 Apr–15 May 2020 ? ? 46.8
33		 31.6
22		 6.1
3		 7.3
4		 5.4
3		 – – – 15.2
SyM Consulting[p 38][p 39] 7–9 May 2020 1,496 71.8 44.9
32		 28.2
17/18		 7.8
4/5		 7.0
5/6		 9.5
5/6		 – – – 16.7
November 2019 general election 10 Nov 2019 — 67.2 38.3
27		 26.0
17		 7.6
5		 9.1
5		 16.8
11		 – – – 12.3
2019 regional election 26 May 2019 — 69.3 46.8
34		 27.5
20		 11.1
7		 7.2
4		 4.7
0		 – – – 19.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Results

Overall
← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Assembly of Extremadura election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes  % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
People's Party (PP)
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS)
United for Extremadura We Can–United Left–Green Alliance (Podemos–IU–AV)
Vox (Vox)
Raise Extremadura (Levanta)1
For a Fairer World (PUM+J)
Together for Extremadura (JUEx) New
A Worthy Extremadura (UED) New
Extremennist Party–Extremennists–Party of Extremadurans (PEx–EXT) New
Cáceres Alive (Cáceres Viva) New
We Are Cáceres (Somos Cc) New
Blank ballots
Total 65±0
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Votes cast / turnout
Abstentions
Registered voters 889,549
Sources
Footnotes:
  • 1 Raise Extremadura results are compared to United Extremadura totals in the 2019 election.

Distribution by constituency
Constituency PSOE PP CS UpE Vox
 % S  % S  % S  % S  % S
Badajoz
Cáceres
Total
Sources

Notes
  1. Vote+Simpathy figures with undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.

References
Opinion poll sources
  1. "Vara ve peligrar un Gobierno con Podemos: PP y Vox están a un escaño de la mayoría absoluta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 17 May 2023.
  2. "Empate en Extremadura: el PSOE, cerca de gobernar con Podemos, pero la campaña será decisiva". El Español (in Spanish). 15 May 2023.
  3. "ElectoPanel Extremadura / Claramente hay un partido preferido para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  4. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (13M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  5. "La popular María Guardiola amenaza el dominio de Fernández Vara en Extremadura". ABC (in Spanish). 13 May 2023.
  6. "La estimación de escaños en Extremadura no deja lugar a dudas sobre el favorito para gobernar". El Plural (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  7. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (6M)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 6 May 2023.
  8. "Vara pierde la mayoría absoluta y necesitará el apoyo de Podemos". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 14 May 2023.
  9. "Preelectoral elecciones municipales y autonómicas 2023. Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  10. "Estimación de voto. Municipios, grandes ciudades y Comunidades Autónomas (Estudio nº 3402. Abril 2023)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 May 2023.
  11. "Extremadura / El PSOE ganaría, pero necesitaría el respaldo de Unidas Podemos". El Plural (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  12. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (29A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 29 April 2023.
  13. "Vara perderá la mayoría absoluta y la extrema derecha entrará en la Asamblea de Extremadura". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 23 April 2023.
  14. "Extremadura / La izquierda supera en tres diputados la suma de PP y Vox". El Plural (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  15. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (22A)". Electomanía (in Spanish). 22 April 2023.
  16. "Vara resiste el avance del PP y Vox y podrá gobernar con el apoyo de Podemos". OKDiario (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  17. "El PSOE retrocede en Extremadura y Fernández Vara necesitará a Podemos para gobernar". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 18 April 2023.
  18. "ElectoPanel Extremadura / Clara victoria del PSOE, que podría gobernar con Unidas Podemos". El Plural (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  19. "ElectoPanel Autonómico (15A) – varias CCAA en un puño". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  20. "El PSOE necesitaría a Unidas por Extremadura para seguir gobernando en la región, según una encuesta interna". Canal Extremadura (in Spanish). 19 April 2023.
  21. "Fernández Vara ganaría en Extremadura pero la suma con Podemos no le asegura superar a PP y Vox". El Español (in Spanish). 15 April 2023.
  22. "ElectoPanel Extremadura / El PSOE roza la mayoría absoluta". El Plural (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  23. "EP Autonómico 8A – comienza el juego". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 April 2023.
  24. "Extremadura: El PSOE pierde la mayoría pero suma con Podemos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 March 2023.
  25. "Vara necesitaría a Podemos e IU para gobernar en Extremadura frente a una derecha en auge". Público (in Spanish). 19 March 2023.
  26. "Vara pierde la mayoría absoluta tras su acercamiento a Sánchez y deberá pactar con Podemos". OKDiario (in Spanish). 17 February 2023.
  27. "Vara pierde la mayoría absoluta tras su acercamiento a Sánchez y deberá pactar con Podemos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 12 December 2022.
  28. "Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico (Estudio nº 3386. Noviembre-diciembre 2022)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  29. "Estimación de escaños elecciones autonómicas (Estudio nº 3386. Macroencuesta sobre tendencias en voto autonómico)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 2022.
  30. "EP Extremadura (15N): la izquierda mantendría la Junta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 15 November 2022.
  31. "Una encuesta de GAD3 para el PP extremeño señala que un posible pacto con Vox rozaría la mayoría absoluta". COPE (in Spanish). 6 November 2022.
  32. "Presentación de resultados. Encuesta socio-electoral en Extremadura" (PDF). GAD3 (in Spanish). 7 November 2022.
  33. "El PSOE de Extremadura ganaría las elecciones con el 45,2% de los votos, según una encuesta de Celeste-Tel". PSOE (in Spanish). 21 October 2022.
  34. "EP Extremadura (30M): Vara mantiene su hegemonía. Cs extraparlamentario". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 March 2021.
  35. "Estimación Marzo 2021. Extremadura. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 19 Mar 2021.
  36. "EP (17My): Extremadura – Vara mantiene la absoluta. Bajón de Cs, entra Vox". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  37. "MacroPanel Autonómico (17My): 8 gobiernos para PSOE+, 8 para PP+ y 3 para otros+". Electomanía (in Spanish). 17 May 2020.
  38. "Estimación Mayo 2020. Extremadura. Autonómicas 2023". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 18 May 2020.
  39. "EXTREMADURA. Encuesta SyM Consulting 18/05/2020: UNIDAS POR EXTREMADURA 7,0% (5/6), PSOE 44,9% (32), Cs 7,8% (4/5), PP 28,2% (17/18), VOX 9,5% (5/6)". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 May 2020.
Other
  1. "Ley Orgánica 1/2011, de 28 de enero, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura". Organic Law No. 1 of 28 January 2011. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  2. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. Araque Conde, Pilar (8 June 2022). "El Congreso acaba con el voto rogado: diez años de trabas burocráticas para los residentes en el extranjero". Público (in Spanish). Madrid. Retrieved 31 July 2022.
  4. "Ley 2/1987, de 16 de marzo, de Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura". Law No. 2 of 16 March 1987. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  5. "Decreto del Presidente 1/2023, de 3 de abril, por el que se convocan elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura" (PDF). Diario Oficial de Extremadura (in Spanish) (65): 20847–20848. 4 April 2023. ISSN 2483-5188.
  6. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985. Boletín Oficial del Estado (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 April 2023.
  7. "Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 15 August 2019.
  8. "Parliamentary Groups 10th Legislature". www.asambleaex.es (in Spanish). Assembly of Extremadura. Retrieved 27 July 2021.
  9. "Fernández Vara será el candidato del PSOE a la Junta de Extremadura por quinta vez". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 24 June 2022. Retrieved 25 June 2022.
  10. "Monago no optará a la reelección y pone fin a 14 años como presidente del PP de Extremadura". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 3 June 2022. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  11. "María Guardiola, única candidata a presidir el PP de Extremadura". Hoy (in Spanish). 20 June 2022. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  12. "Ciudadanos designa a David Salazar como nuevo coordinador del partido en Extremadura". elDiario.es (in Spanish). 28 September 2020. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  13. Romero, Rocío (6 February 2023). "Fernando Baselga será finalmente el candidato a la Junta de Extremadura". Hoy (in Spanish). Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  14. "Irene de Miguel repetirá como candidata de Podemos a la presidencia de la Junta". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 4 November 2022. Retrieved 19 April 2023.
  15. "Vox designa a Ángel Pelayo como candidato a la Presidencia de Extremadura". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 1 February 2023. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
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