Climate change in Nigeria

There are evidences that point to extreme weather events and changes in the climate system of Nigeria. Between 2014 and 2018, rising high temperatures above 40 °C had been observed in some central and northern parts of the country with Maiduguri and Nguru recording 44.5 °C and 44.4 °C respectively. This two locations were identified to have recorded the highest number of days with day time temperature of above 40 °C (>70 days). There was also a case of heat wave in Lagos described as one of the most severe heat-waves in 2016.[12][13][14]

Similarly, fewer cities recorded extreme night-time low temperatures that were equal or less than 10 °C. Lowest (night time) temperatures of 6.9 °C, 7.8 °C, and 8.3 °C were recorded in the northern states of Bauchi, Kano and Jos respectively. Usi-Ekiti (Ekiti North) in the West and Jos in the North recorded highest number of days with prolonged low night time temperatures.[12]

Within the same period, highest one-day rainfall value of 223.5mm was recorded in Abakiliki in the southeast which caused flooding that evacuated 5,000 residents. Flood and windstorm displaced no fewer than 7,290 people, killed 67 persons, destroyed above 3,900 homes and many farms in five northern states namely Sokoto, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi and Zamfara. Properties worth over 700million Naira were also destroyed. The Federal Government disbursed a total sum of 3 billion Naira from the Ecological fund within this period.[12]

Nigeria has a tropical climate with two seasons: (wet and dry). Inland areas especially those in the northeast, experience the greatest fluctuations in temperatures as before the onset of rains, temperatures sometimes rise as high as 44 °C and drops to 6 °C between December and February. In Maiduguri, the maximum temperature may rise to 38 °C in April and May while in the same season frosts might occur at night.[15]

For example in Lagos, the average high is 31 °C and low is 23 °C in January and 28 °C and 23 °C in June. The southeast regions especially located around the coast like Bonny (south of Port Harcourt), east of Calabar receive the highest amount of annual rainfalls of around 4,000 millimeters.[15][16]

Climate change in Nigeria is shifting climate regions. The step region in the North is set to expand southwards, and tropical monsoon regions in the South are moving northwards, replacing tropical rainforest.[17]

Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) in its 2019 seasonal rainfall prediction, predicted that 2019 will be another hot year. The mean annual variability and trend of rainfall over Nigeria in the last six decades depicts several inter-annual fluctuations and responsible for extreme climate events such as droughts and floods in many parts of the country.[18]

Köppen climate classification map for Nigeria (1980-2016)

Predicted Köppen climate classification map for Nigeria for 2071–2100

Years ago, Nigeria experienced climate change disaster which happened in the Northeastern region which is now Borno and Yobe states the territory along the Southern part of lake Chad dried up. Due to logging and over dependence on firewood for cooking, a greater part of the Nigeria’s Guinea Savannah region has been stripped of its vegetation cover. Similarly, the forest around Oyo has been reduced to grassland.[19][20] The lack of sufficient cover trees and other vegetation can cause natural change, desertification, and soil breaking down, flooding, and extended ozone exhausting substances in the environment.[21]

In late August 2012, Nigeria was hit by the worst flooding ever experienced in 40 years. This affected 7 million people in communities across 33 states including kogi state. More than 2 million people out of the affected 7 million were driven from their homes by rising waters.[22][23]

Nigeria experienced another flooding caused by heavy seasonal rains in 2013 which brought further misery to a population that was still recovering from the 2012 fatal floods. Many mud-brick homes collapsed and families' belongings were ruined. Dug wells which are sources of potable water were also polluted. The states of Abia, Bauchi, Benue, Jigawa, Kebbi, Kano, Kogi and Zamfara were most affected by the floodwaters which lasted for 48 hours. The situation in Kaduna and Katsina was aggravated by the collapse of earth dams. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, more than 47,000 people were affected. This lesser number of people affected is attributed to the lessons of the 2012 floods which prepared the country for a better response.[24]

In Nigeria areas around the coastal regions are at risk of rising sea level. For example, the Niger Delta area is extremely vulnerable to flooding at a risk of rising sea level and a victim of extreme oil pollution. Climate change was the reason behind the flood that took place in Southern Nigeria in 2012. The flood was responsible for the loss of houses, farms, farm produce, properties and lives. According to statistics released in 2014 by National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), about 5,000 houses and 60 homes were affected in a windstorm that occurred in four states in the south west region.[19]

Agriculture is one of the sectors affected by climate change in Nigeria (street vendor in Lagos)

Agriculture remains the mainstay of the Nigerian economy in spite of oil as it employs two-thirds of the entire working population.[25][26][27] The sector is fraught with challenges as agricultural production is still mainly rainfed and subject to weather vagaries. Farmers find it hard to plan their operations due to unpredictable rainfall vagaries.[28] Increase in the total amount of rainfall and extreme temperature would have more of a negative effect on staple crops productivity. However in northern states such as Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto most crops might benefit economically. Crops such as millet, melon, sugarcane that are grown in the north will most likely benefit from extreme temperature.[29]

The sector is also plagued with outdated land tenure system that limits access to land (1.8 ha/farming household), reduced irrigation development capacity (cropped land under irrigation less than 1 percent), limited access to credits, low adoption of technologies, expensive farm inputs, limited access to fertilizers, inadequate storage facilities and limited market access. All of these combined, have reduced agricultural productivity (average of 1.2 metric tons of cereals/ha) coupled with high postharvest losses and waste.[26]

The fisheries sub-sector in Nigeria contributes about 3–4 percent to the country’s annual GDP. It is also a key contributor to the nutritional requirements of the population as it constitutes about 50 percent of animal protein intake. The sub-sector also provides income and employment for a substantial number of small traders and artisanal fishermen.[26] Over the past few years, capture fisheries have been declining and despite high potential Nigeria has in both fresh water and marine fisheries, domestic fish production still falls short of total demand. This has led to a high dependence on imports to reduce importation dependence, aquaculture has been made one of the priority value chains targeted for development by the Nigerian government. Climate change affects the characteristics and nature of freshwater resources due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Increased salinity and shrinking lakes and rivers are also threats to the viability of inland fisheries.[28]

Nigeria is endowed with forest resources of diverse species. The excessive exploitation of these forest resources is a source of concern as it is a threat to the economic, environmental and social wellbeing of Nigerians. Apart from providing a significant proportion of global timber and fuel, with associated environmental functions. These includes wild animals, medicinal plants and herbs, watershed protection, hydrological regime stabilization and carbon sequestration. Forests regulate global climate and serves as a major agent of carbon exchange in the atmosphere.[30] In Nigeria, natural forests have reduced drastically and its impacts on climate change are increasing. Erosion and excessive wind reduces the amount of forestry produce, such as wood and cane.[31] Forests are under significant pressure not only from climate change but also from increasing populations and greater demand for forest resources.[28]

Increase in temperature

The effects of the temperature increase are unbearable for residents, particularly those living in communities hosting gas flare plants. The increase in temperature causes bodily rashes, among other things, and hinders the growth of food crops. The availability of nutrients, plant and root growth, and seed germination are all affected by soil temperature. High temperatures hinder a plant's regular growth, photosynthesis, and flowering since they do not improve plant physiology.

NIMET has predicted an increased incidence of malaria due to climate change, and other diseases that will be higher in areas with temperatures ranging between 18 and 32 °C and with relative humidity above 60%.[18]

Climate Carbon mitigation is an issue for the world's economies as they work to combat climate change and advance environmental and socioeconomic sustainability.[36] However, for most of African countries, including Nigeria, the carbon footprint is low yet the effects of the climate crises is in the country is huge. Thus in essence what are we mitigating? Even more interesting is that the world's economy cannot abruptly quit using fossil fuels tomorrow since that would mean the end of the current way of life. Without the fossil fuel economy, we wouldn't have computers or smartphones, or be able to contact with you online (the plastic on your device is made from fossil fuels). In addition, fossil fuels are necessary for all aspects of modern living, including food, clothing, shelter, water, entertainment, and others.

In Nigeria, adapting to the effects of the climate crises should be the focus for government, Non governmental organisations and individuals. The effects of climate crises are on us despite not emitting significant greenhouse gases, especially in the areas of Agriculture and Health, causing ripple effects of migration, crises and gender inequality. Despite our best efforts, it looks like we have essentially paid lip service to the implementation of adaptation programmes while still trying to play a leading role in the battle against climate change.

As a means to prevent desertification, the Great Green Wall of the Sahara and the Sahel initiative is a planned project to plant a wall of trees across Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara desert. It is to be implemented in Nigeria in eleven front line states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno. It will cover 43 local government areas of Nigeria in the frontline states to be covered to rehabilitate 225,000 ha of lands.[19][37]

The UNDP is committed to supporting Nigeria and a UNDP-NDC Support Programme is already fully in motion. One of their goals is having increased engagement with the government and private sector.[18]

Protesters in Port Harcourt joining the Global Climate March in the lead-up to the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference.

A study of students at University of Jos, found that 59.7 of respondents had good knowledge about climate change, and understood it's connection to issues like Fossil fuel, Pollution, Deforestation and urbanization.[42]

While the academic community are informed about climate change and its effects, considering the amount of researches conducted on the subject, less educated communities and communities in rural areas have not regularly demonstrated climate change knowledge. A survey of 1000 people in rural communities in southwestern Nigeria found that many members of the rural communities had superstitions about climate change, and that respondents had poor knowledge about the causes and effects.[43] Some of the challenges with the non-specialist communities include lack of contextual information about climate change, language communication barrier in the local language.