2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee

2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee
	November 2, 2004
Turnout	66.32% [1] 3.29 pp
Bush 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%	Kerry 40–50% 50–60%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Tennessee was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 14.30% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. In the past 14 presidential elections, the Republican nominee won ten of them. The state trended more Republican by 10.43 points from Bush's performance in 2000. Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Third party and independent candidates made up just 0.68% of the vote.

As of 2020, this is the last time that the following counties have voted Democratic in a presidential election: Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County. This is also the last time that Tennessee has voted to the right of Arkansas, or to the left of Georgia on a presidential level.

Primaries

The 2004 Tennessee primary took place on February 10, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States Democratic presidential primaries. The delegate allocation is Proportional. the candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes received and is open to anyone. A total of 69 (of 85) delegates are awarded proportionally. A 15 percent threshold is required to receive delegates. Frontrunner John Kerry won the primary with Senator John Edwards and former general Wesley Clark both obtaining over 20% and receiving delegates.

Kerry won most of the counties and all the congressional districts. Although, Kerry didn't do well in the middle of the state, winning the 4th, 5th, and 6th CDs with less than 40% of the vote. Edwards won 4 counties in the state. In Sullivan County, Tennessee Edwards obtained 42% of the vote but lost to Kerry with a small margin. Clark gained over 30% of the vote in just 2 counties, including his best performance in Montgomery County, TN. The largest turnout came from Shelby County and Davidson County.

United States presidential primary election in Tennessee, 2004[2][3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
	Democratic	John Kerry	151,527	41.0%	31
	Democratic	John Edwards	97,914	26.5%	20
	Democratic	Wesley Clark	85,315	23.1%	18
	Democratic	Howard Dean	16,128	4.4%	0
	Democratic	Al Sharpton	6,107	1.7%	0
	Democratic	Joe Lieberman	3,213	0.9%	0
	Democratic	Uncommitted	2,727	0.7%	0
	Democratic	Carol Moseley-Braun	2,490	0.7%	0
	Democratic	Dennis Kucinich	2,279	0.6%	0
	Democratic	Richard Gephardt	1,402	0.4%	0
	Democratic	Lyndon Larouche	283	0.1%	0
Totals				-	100.00%	69
Voter turnout				%		—

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[4]


Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Lean R
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Lean R
Newsweek	Solid R
New York Times	Solid R
Rasmussen Reports	Likely R
Research 2000	Solid R
Washington Post	Likely R
Washington Times	Solid R
Zogby International	Likely R
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 49%. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.[5]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,636,916.[6] Kerry raised $1,187,742.[7]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[8][9]

Analysis

While the Republicans control slightly more than half of the state, Democrats have strong support in the cities of Memphis and Nashville and in parts of Middle Tennessee and in West Tennessee north and east of Memphis[10] The latter area includes a large rural African-American population.[11]

Despite Tennessee being a swing state from the 1950s to the 2000s, it was not seriously contested in 2004. Vice President Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, lost his home state in 2000 albeit by a thin margin. The majority of voters support for Republican George W. Bush increased in 2004, with his margin of victory in the state increasing from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2004.[12] Southern Democratic nominees (e.g., Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) usually fare better in Tennessee, especially among split-ticket voters outside the metropolitan areas.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County voted for the Democratic candidate, as John McCain would outperform Bush in the state four years later.

Results

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004[13]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush	Dick Cheney	1,384,375	56.81%	11
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,036,477	42.51%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	8,992	0.37%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	4,866	0.20%	0
	Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	2,570	0.11%	0
	Green Party	David Cobb	Pat LaMarche	33	0.00%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	Mary Alice Herbert	6	0.00%	0
Totals				2,437,919	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						54.8%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Other votes
County	%	#	%	#	%	#
Anderson	58.4%	18,510	40.7%	12,896	0.9%	276
Bedford	60.9%	8,351	38.4%	5,268	0.6%	87
Benton	44.6%	3,161	54.6%	3,869	0.8%	60
Bledsoe	59.2%	2,849	40.1%	1,927	0.7%	33
Blount	68.2%	33,241	30.9%	15,047	0.9%	424
Bradley	72.8%	25,951	26.5%	9,431	0.7%	255
Campbell	55.7%	7,859	43.7%	6,163	0.7%	96
Cannon	53.5%	2,931	45.9%	2,515	0.6%	35
Carroll	56.2%	6,605	43.1%	5,070	0.7%	82
Carter	70.7%	15,768	28.7%	6,395	0.7%	150
Cheatham	61.6%	9,676	37.7%	5,918	0.7%	103
Chester	64.3%	4,086	35.3%	2,242	0.5%	29
Claiborne	61.2%	6,448	38.3%	4,034	0.6%	58
Clay	49.2%	1,650	49.9%	1,675	1.0%	32
Cocke	67.4%	8,297	32.0%	3,935	0.6%	79
Coffee	58.5%	11,793	40.9%	8,243	0.6%	131
Crockett	56.7%	3,242	43.0%	2,459	0.4%	21
Cumberland	64.1%	15,144	35.2%	8,327	0.7%	166
Davidson	44.5%	107,839	54.8%	132,737	0.7%	1,726
Decatur	52.6%	2,566	46.5%	2,268	0.9%	45
DeKalb	51.4%	3,685	48.0%	3,445	0.6%	43
Dickson	54.8%	10,567	44.5%	8,597	0.7%	134
Dyer	61.2%	8,447	38.3%	5,287	0.5%	75
Fayette	60.8%	8,962	38.7%	5,696	0.5%	79
Fentress	64.1%	4,293	35.4%	2,371	0.5%	36
Franklin	53.5%	9,129	45.7%	7,800	0.9%	148
Gibson	55.1%	10,596	44.3%	8,511	0.6%	114
Giles	53.4%	6,163	45.7%	5,273	0.9%	101
Grainger	65.2%	4,907	34.1%	2,569	0.7%	51
Greene	67.7%	16,382	31.6%	7,635	0.7%	177
Grundy	42.7%	2,107	56.6%	2,789	0.7%	33
Hamblen	66.1%	14,742	33.3%	7,433	0.6%	143
Hamilton	57.4%	78,547	41.8%	57,302	0.8%	1,087
Hancock	68.8%	1,756	30.5%	777	0.7%	18
Hardeman	44.9%	4,704	54.3%	5,685	0.7%	77
Hardin	61.2%	6,087	38.5%	3,834	0.3%	33
Hawkins	66.5%	13,447	33.0%	6,684	0.5%	102
Haywood	41.6%	3,140	57.8%	4,359	0.6%	49
Henderson	65.2%	6,585	34.2%	3,448	0.6%	63
Henry	55.7%	7,340	43.5%	5,732	0.8%	105
Hickman	50.3%	4,359	49.2%	4,263	0.6%	51
Houston	40.0%	1,440	59.1%	2,126	0.9%	32
Humphreys	41.8%	3,261	57.6%	4,485	0.6%	47
Jackson	40.1%	2,026	59.3%	2,998	0.6%	32
Jefferson	67.5%	11,625	31.8%	5,469	0.7%	121
Johnson	71.5%	4,634	28.0%	1,812	0.5%	34
Knox	62.1%	110,803	37.0%	66,013	0.9%	1,603
Lake	43.8%	1,039	55.6%	1,317	0.6%	14
Lauderdale	48.0%	4,164	51.5%	4,474	0.5%	44
Lawrence	59.8%	9,959	39.6%	6,592	0.6%	107
Lewis	55.8%	2,819	43.4%	2,192	0.9%	43
Lincoln	62.8%	7,829	36.5%	4,546	0.7%	82
Loudon	70.7%	14,041	28.7%	5,708	0.6%	115
McMinn	66.5%	11,980	32.7%	5,891	0.7%	132
McNairy	58.3%	5,787	41.3%	4,101	0.4%	36
Macon	62.8%	4,670	36.8%	2,738	0.3%	25
Madison	56.1%	21,679	43.5%	16,840	0.4%	156
Marion	51.0%	5,862	48.3%	5,548	0.7%	82
Marshall	54.9%	5,825	44.5%	4,722	0.6%	68
Maury	58.3%	17,505	41.2%	12,379	0.5%	159
Meigs	60.5%	2,500	38.6%	1,595	0.9%	37
Monroe	65.0%	10,123	34.4%	5,354	0.6%	91
Montgomery	58.4%	28,627	41.0%	20,070	0.6%	301
Moore	60.1%	1,668	39.1%	1,084	0.8%	22
Morgan	59.8%	4,401	39.7%	2,924	0.5%	35
Obion	58.1%	7,859	41.0%	5,549	0.9%	127
Overton	46.3%	3,941	53.1%	4,518	0.6%	51
Perry	48.3%	1,522	50.1%	1,579	1.6%	49
Pickett	60.5%	1,600	39.1%	1,033	0.5%	12
Polk	58.6%	3,924	40.7%	2,724	0.8%	52
Putnam	59.1%	15,637	40.0%	10,566	0.9%	239
Rhea	66.0%	7,301	33.2%	3,665	0.8%	88
Roane	62.0%	14,467	37.3%	8,706	0.7%	165
Robertson	60.5%	15,331	39.0%	9,865	0.5%	127
Rutherford	61.8%	52,200	37.5%	31,647	0.7%	562
Scott	59.1%	4,509	40.5%	3,086	0.4%	33
Sequatchie	59.2%	2,951	39.9%	1,986	0.9%	46
Sevier	71.5%	22,143	27.8%	8,621	0.7%	206
Shelby	41.9%	158,137	57.5%	216,945	0.6%	2,200
Smith	47.8%	3,739	51.7%	4,044	0.6%	45
Stewart	47.9%	2,675	51.2%	2,860	0.9%	48
Sullivan	67.9%	42,555	31.3%	19,637	0.7%	447
Sumner	64.8%	40,181	34.6%	21,458	0.5%	329
Tipton	65.4%	14,178	34.0%	7,379	0.6%	120
Trousdale	41.2%	1,314	58.0%	1,851	0.58%	26
Unicoi	67.4%	5,030	31.8%	2,374	0.8%	59
Union	61.8%	4,145	37.6%	2,524	0.6%	41
Van Buren	47.7%	1,120	51.5%	1,209	0.8%	18
Warren	52.1%	7,503	47.3%	6,808	0.6%	89
Washington	66.1%	29,735	33.2%	14,944	0.7%	327
Wayne	66.8%	3,999	32.6%	1,951	0.6%	34
Weakley	57.9%	7,817	41.4%	5,588	0.7%	91
White	55.5%	5,269	43.7%	4,147	0.8%	79
Williamson	72.1%	57,451	27.3%	21,732	0.6%	467
Wilson	65.1%	28,924	34.4%	15,277	0.6%	251

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Bedford (Largest city: Shelbyville)
Campbell (Largest city: LaFollette)
Cannon (Largest city: Woodbury)
Crockett (Largest city: Bells)
Decatur (Largest city: Parsons)
DeKalb (Largest city: Smithville)
Dickson (Largest city: Dickson)
Franklin (Largest city: Winchester)
Gibson (Largest city: Humboldt)
Giles (Largest city: Pulaski)
Henry (Largest city: Paris)
Hickman (Largest city: Centerville)
Lewis (Largest city: Hohenwald)
Marion (Largest city: Jasper)
Marshall (Largest city: Lewisburg)
Robertson (Largest city: Springfield)
Warren (Largest city: McMinnville)
White (Largest city: Sparta)

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.[14]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	68%	31%	William L Jenkins
2nd	64%	35%	John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd	61%	38%	Zach Wamp
4th	58%	41%	Lincoln Davis
5th	48%	52%	Jim Cooper
6th	60%	40%	Bart Gordon
7th	66%	33%	Marsha Blackburn
8th	53%	47%	John S. Tanner
9th	30%	70%	Harold Ford Jr.

Electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:[15]

Susan Anderson
Betty Cannon
Winfield Dunn
Geneva Williams Harrison
Brock Hill
Bruce Montgomery
Claude Ramsey
Bob Rial
John Ryder
Mark Tipps
Sally Wall

References

"Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2004". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved February 28, 2023.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"CNN.com 2004 Primaries". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 21 November 2010. Retrieved 17 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
"Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on 2008-11-28. Retrieved 2009-11-29.
"George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"Map - Tennessee 2000 Election Mapper". Archived from the original on 2009-01-03. Retrieved 2009-11-29.
Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine U.S. Census Bureau
Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits Archived 2008-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Rasumussen Reports, April 6, 2008
"2004 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee".
"Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.
"U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

[1] "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2004". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved February 28, 2023.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

[2] Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[3] "CNN.com 2004 Primaries". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[4] "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on 21 November 2010. Retrieved 17 January 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

[5] "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on 2008-11-28. Retrieved 2009-11-29.

[6] "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[7] "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[8] "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[9] "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[10] "Map - Tennessee 2000 Election Mapper". Archived from the original on 2009-01-03. Retrieved 2009-11-29.

[11] Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine U.S. Census Bureau

[12] Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits Archived 2008-12-24 at the Wayback Machine Rasumussen Reports, April 6, 2008

[13] "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee".

[14] "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 13 August 2018.

[15] "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Archives.gov. Retrieved 13 August 2018.