2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
The 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election will be held to elect the next governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office.[1] This race is one of two Democratic-held governorships, the other being in Kentucky, up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020.
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Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates will appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of that person's party affiliation. If no candidate receives an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 14, 2023, a runoff election will be held on November 18, 2023, between the top two candidates in the primary.[2]
Background
Louisiana, like much of the Deep South, is a very socially conservative "Bible Belt" state. Democrats were the favored party at all levels of government as recently as the 1990s, however the Republican Party has since rapidly gained ground, first at the federal level and gradually at the state and local level as well. By the mid-2010s, Republicans had taken control of both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, all but one of its U.S. House seats, both chambers of the state legislature and almost every statewide office.
John Bel Edwards, a conservative Democrat, was able to win two terms as governor and overcome the state's partisan lean by diverging from the national party on certain policy matters (particularly abortion, as one of the few remaining anti-abortion Democrats) and concurrently successfully appealing to Louisiana's traditional Democratic voting base.[3][4]
Nonetheless, most analysts expect the governorship to flip back to the Republican Party in 2023, primarily due to the dearth of Democratic candidates with Edwards' crossover appeal.[5]
Democratic candidates
Declared
- Danny Cole, Pentecostal pastor[6]
- Shawn Wilson, former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development[7]
Publicly expressed interest
- Gary Smith Jr., state senator from the 19th district[8]
Potential
Declined
- Katie Bernhardt, chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party[12][13]
- Gary Chambers, community organizer, candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district in 2021, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[14] (endorsed Wilson)[15]
- Hillar Moore, East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney[16]
- Cedric Richmond, former Director of the Office of Public Engagement, former Senior Advisor to the President, and former U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd congressional district[17][18]
Republican candidates
Declared
- Sharon Hewitt, Majority Leader of the Louisiana Senate from the 1st district[19]
- Xan John, businessman and Independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022[20]
- Jeff Landry, Louisiana Attorney General[21]
- Richard Nelson, state representative from the 89th district[22]
- John Schroder, Louisiana State Treasurer[23]
- Stephen Waguespack, former president and CEO of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry and former chief of staff to then-governor Bobby Jindal[24]
Declined
- Bill Cassidy, U.S. Senator[25]
- Garret Graves, U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 6th congressional district[26][27]
- John Kennedy, U.S. Senator[28][29]
- Billy Nungesser, Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (running for re-election)[30]
- Clay Schexnayder, Speaker of the Louisiana House of Representatives[31] (running for Secretary of State)[32]
- Mike Strain, commissioner of the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry[33] (running for re-election)[34]
- Rick Ward III, former state senator from the 17th district[35][36]
Independent candidates
Declared
- Jeffery Istre, oilfield worker and U.S. Army veteran[37]
- Hunter Lundy, attorney and Democratic candidate for Louisiana's 7th congressional district in 1996[38]
Jungle primary
Campaign
The Louisiana Republican Party endorsed Attorney General Jeff Landry's campaign on November 7, 2022, a year before the election. The party had had a full-body meeting scheduled for October 29, but it was canceled, and instead the endorsement was voted on in an exclusive meeting held over Zoom.[39] Landry and Eddie Rispone, a member of the Republican State Central Committee who supports him, had pushed the party to make an early endorsement, arguing that Republicans' best chance of flipping the governorship was to unite around one candidate well in advance of the election. This move was heavily criticized by other Republicans who had expressed interest in running for governor. Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser said the party's endorsement process "looks more like communist China than the Louisiana we know and love," State Treasurer John Schroder claimed it was driven by "money and inside party politics," and Louisiana Senate Majority Leader Sharon Hewitt proclaimed "the citizens of Louisiana do not need backroom deals and political insiders telling them who should be our next governor." Michael DiResto, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, believed "the idea that a small cabal would preempt the democratic process literally under the cover of darkness and in a smoke-filled Zoom goes against the foundational values of our party."[40][41] In response, Louisiana Republican Party chair Louis Gurvich said "others who are crying over this endorsement are just upset because they didn’t have the support within our party to win the endorsement for themselves."[42]
Endorsements
- Federal officials
- Donald Trump, former President of the United States (2017–2021)[43]
- U.S. Representatives
- Ralph Abraham, LA-5 (2015–2021) and candidate for governor in 2019[41]
- Clay Higgins, LA-3 (2017–present)[44]
- Mike Johnson, LA-4 (2021–present)[45]
- Individuals
- Eddie Rispone, member of the Louisiana Republican State Central Committee, former chair of the Louisiana Workforce Investment Council, and runner-up for governor in 2019[40]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former president Donald Trump[46]
- Organizations
- Political parties
- U.S. Representatives
- Troy Carter, LA-2 (2021–present)[15]
- Statewide officials
- John Bel Edwards, outgoing Governor of Louisiana (2016–present)[48]
- Davante Lewis, Louisiana Public Service Commissioner from the 3rd district (2022–present)[49]
- State legislators
- Jay Luneau, state senator from the 29th district (2016–present)[50]
- Local officials
- Sharon Weston Broome, Mayor-President of Baton Rouge (2017–present)[49]
- Individuals
- Gary Chambers, community organizer, candidate for Louisiana's 2nd congressional district in 2021, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[15]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Sharon Hewitt (R) |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Hunter Lundy (I) |
Richard Nelson (R) |
John Schroder (R) |
Stephen Waguespack (R) |
Shawn Wilson (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 36% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 1%[lower-alpha 2] | 29% |
| WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] | Before April 18, 2023 | ? | ? | - | 35% | - | - | - | - | 25% | 17%[lower-alpha 3] | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Bill Cassidy (R) |
Sharon Weston Broome (D) |
Garret Graves (R) |
Sharon Hewitt (R) |
John Kennedy (R) |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Hunter Lundy (I) |
Billy Nungesser (R) |
John Schroder (R) |
Gary Smith Jr. (D) |
Shawn Wilson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics[upper-alpha 3] | March 6–8, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 12% | 2% | – | 28% | 3% | – | 3% | – | 29% | 22% |
| BDPC, LLC[upper-alpha 4] | December 7–13, 2022 | 630 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | – | 3% | – | 22% | 2% | 23% | 2% | – | 23% | 24% |
| Torchlight Strategies[upper-alpha 5] | December 6–9, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | – | – | – | – | 42% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 22% | 20% |
| Torchlight Strategies[upper-alpha 5] | November 9–12, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 6% | – | 5% | <1% | 22% | 13% | 2% | 7% | 1% | – | 18% | 26% |
| JMC Analytics (R) | March 21–23, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 10% | 14% | – | 2% | 22% | 11% | – | 7% | 1% | 4% | – | 29% |
Runoff
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[51] | Lean R (flip) | February 16, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[52] | Lean R (flip) | May 5, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | Likely R (flip) | January 19, 2023 |
Polling
- John Kennedy vs. Jeff Landry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
John Kennedy (R) |
Jeff Landry (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies[upper-alpha 5] | December 6–9, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 21% | 27% |
- Shawn Wilson vs. John Kennedy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Shawn Wilson (D) |
John Kennedy (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies[upper-alpha 5] | December 6–9, 2022 | 861 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 27% | 58% | 14% |
| Torchlight Strategies[upper-alpha 5] | November 9–12, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 58% | 12% |
- Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics (R) | March 21–23, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 50% | 17% |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - "Someone else" with 1%
- No other candidate received more than 3%
- Partisan clients
- Poll conducted for Club for Growth
- Poll conducted for Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser
- Poll conducted for Attorney General candidate John Belton
- Poll conducted for Billy Nungesser
- Poll conducted for John Kennedy
References
- "Louisiana Constitution of 1974" (PDF). Government of Louisiana. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
- Wilson, Sabrina (March 13, 2023). "How crowded will field get for Louisiana governor's race?". WVUE. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- "Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards wins reelection in Louisiana". POLITICO. November 16, 2019. Retrieved February 8, 2023.
- "Democrat Edwards wins reelection in conservative Louisiana". AP NEWS. April 20, 2021. Retrieved February 8, 2023.
- "2023 Odd Year Governor Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 8, 2023.
- Noakes, Alena (February 15, 2023). "Cenla resident running for Louisiana governor". KALB.
- "Former Louisiana DOTD Secretary Shawn Wilson announces his bid for governor". Fox 8 Live. March 6, 2023. Retrieved March 6, 2023.
- "An inside look at the parties at Washington Mardi Gras for Louisiana governor candidates". January 26, 2023.
- "OFF TO THE RACES" (PDF). January 11, 2023.
- "Governor's race is wide open". January 11, 2023.
- Bridges, Tyler (November 3, 2022). "Louisiana Democrats are looking for a gubernatorial candidate. Shawn Wilson might be their guy".
- Bridges, Tylerf. "Katie Bernhardt, Democratic party chair, signals interest in running for governor". The Advocate. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
- "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/10".
- Bridges, Tyler (January 24, 2023). "Jeff Landry leads in early governor's race poll". The Advocate. Retrieved February 27, 2023.
Chambers said he has ruled out running if Shawn Wilson, the retiring state transportation secretary, enters the race
- Bridges, Tyler (March 7, 2023). "Troy Carter endorses Shawn Wilson's campaign for governor. Here's why it matters". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- "District Attorney Hillar Moore Won't Run for Governor". February 28, 2023.
- Wright, Robert J. "Who are the favorites to be Louisiana's next governor?". 710 Keel. 710 Keel. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
- "Cedric Richmond is done with electoral politics, but still in the game".
'I have no intention of ever running for public office again,' [Richmond] told me
- "State Sen. Sharon Hewitt enters governor's race". January 13, 2023.
- "Xan John announces candidacy for governor". WAFB News. January 13, 2023. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
- "Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry announces he is running for governor". WDSU News. October 5, 2022.
- "A Northshore state representative has launched his campaign for governor". WDSU. January 18, 2023. Retrieved January 18, 2023.
- "La. State Treasurer John Schroder officially joins race for governor". WAFB. January 9, 2023. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
- "Stephen Waguespack enters the governor's race, will resign as head of LABI". March 9, 2023.
- "Sen. Bill Cassidy has decided on whether or not he will run for governor". WDSU. November 18, 2022. Retrieved November 18, 2022.
- "Congressman Graves says he will make a decision soon on governor's race". January 11, 2023.
- WBRZ Staff (March 7, 2023). "Congressman Garret Graves says he won't run for La. governor". WBRZ. Retrieved March 7, 2023.
- Adragna, Anthony (November 14, 2022). "John Kennedy says he's giving "serious consideration" to jumping into the open Louisiana governor's race next year". Politico. Politico. Retrieved November 14, 2022.
- Hilburn, Greg (January 4, 2023). "Republican Senator John Kennedy out of Louisiana governor's race". The Lafayette Daily Advertiser. Retrieved January 4, 2023.
- Karlin, Sam. "Billy Nungesser to announce he's not running for governor, will seek re-election". The Advocate. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
- "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/28". February 28, 2023.
- "Louisiana House Speaker Clay Schexnayder makes it official, will run for secretary of state".
- Alford, Jeremy. "Thinking about 2023? You can bet some of these Louisiana politicians are". houmatoday. houmatoday. Retrieved February 2, 2021.
- "LOUISIANA. State Agriculture Comm Mike Strain (R) announced he will seek reelection next year to a fifth term; will not run for Governor".
- Paterson, Blake (October 18, 2021). "State Sen. Rick Ward says he's considering a run for governor of Louisiana". The Advocate. Archived from the original on October 19, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2021.
- "End of the Road: Rick Ward ends 11-year Louisiana Senate career".
Ward hinted earlier this year about a run for governor. He said those plans are off the table, at least for now.
- "Jeffery Istre joins race for governor". KPLC. February 1, 2023. Retrieved March 1, 2023.
- Maricle, Doris (September 8, 2022). "Lundy announces run for governor". The American Press. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
- "Republicans react to state GOP endorsing Jeff Landry for Governor".
- Karlin, Sam (November 7, 2022). "LA GOP endorses Jeff Landry for governor early, drawing blowback from two rivals". The Advocate. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Hilburn, Greg (November 7, 2022). "Louisiana Republican Party endorses Jeff Landry in 2023 governor's race". The Daily Advertiser. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- "Senator John Kennedy mulls Louisiana governor's race; releases poll showing him as favorite".
- "Former President Donald Trump endorses Jeff Landry in race for governor". WAFB. May 8, 2023. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Thorington, Brooke (December 14, 2022). "Congressman Higgins endorses Landry for governor". Louisiana Radio Network. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Hilburn, Greg (January 9, 2023). "Louisiana Congressman Mike Johnson endorses Jeff Landry for governor: What's next?". The Shreveport Times. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Bridges, Tyler (December 16, 2022). "With key backers, Jeff Landry is seen as early front-runner in Louisiana governor race". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 4/25". Daily Kos. April 25, 2023. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Finn, James (March 7, 2023). "John Bel Edwards endorses Shawn Wilson in 2023 Louisiana governor's race". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- Jacobs, David (May 18, 2023). "Roundup: Broome endorsement / Titanic wreckage / TreadBR rebrand". Greater Baton Rouge Business Report. Retrieved May 18, 2023.
- Parker, Zach (March 15, 2023). "Edwards endorses Wilson as candidate for governor". The Ouachita Citizen. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
- "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
- "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites