2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election will take place on November 7, 2023 to choose the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Governor Tate Reeves is running for re-election to a second and final term in office.[1] Primary elections will be held on August 8, and if a runoff is required, it will be held on August 29.[2]

See also: 2023 United States gubernatorial elections

2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election
November 7, 2023
 
Nominee TBD Brandon Presley
(presumptive)
Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican


Elections in Mississippi
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
State Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Attorney General elections
Ballot measures
2001
2004
2020
City of Jackson
Mayoral elections

Background

A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal level, with both of its U.S. senators and all but one of its U.S. representatives belonging to the Republican Party, with all statewide offices currently being held by Republicans. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 16 percentage points.

Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.

Most analysts consider Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and the extreme unpopularity of national Democrats in one of the most socially conservative states in the nation. Nonetheless, some consider the race to have the potential to become competitive, citing factors such as Reeves' narrow victory four years prior and the heavy criticism he has faced for his poor handling of the Jackson water crisis and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which have led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The presumptive Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, is considered to be a potentially-strong general election candidate; he has represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and holds relatively moderate or even conservative views on social issues, thus fitting the state.[3][4]

Republican primary

Declared

Declined

Polling
Hypothetical polling
Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tate
Reeves		 Bill
Waller Jr.		 Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College January 3–8, 2023 821 (RV) ± 4.6% 52% 29% 19%

Results
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Hardigree
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent)
Republican John Witcher
Total votes

Democratic primary

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements
Brandon Presley
U.S. Repreentatives

Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of May 3, 2023[24]
Candidate Raised Cash on hand
Brandon Presley $1,350,000 $1,600,000

Results
Democratic primary results[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brandon Presley
Total votes

Independents

Declared
  • Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive[5]

Declined

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Likely R February 16, 2023
Inside Elections[26] Likely R May 5, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] Likely R January 19, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the first round.

Brandon Presley (D)
Federal appointed officials
U.S. Representatives
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling
Tate Reeves vs. Brandon Presley
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tate
Reeves (R)		 Brandon
Presley (D)		 Other Undecided
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] April 24–27, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% – 9%
Mississippi Today/Siena College April 16–20, 2023 783 (RV) ± 4.3% 49% 38% 7%[lower-alpha 3] 6%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon March 6–10, 2023 625 (RV)[lower-alpha 4] ± 4.0% 46% 39% – 15%
Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research[upper-alpha 2] January 21–25, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 47% – 10%
Mississippi Today/Siena College January 3–8, 2023 821 (RV) ± 4.6% 43% 39% 2%[lower-alpha 5] 14%
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] December 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% – 9%
Hypothetical polling
Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Tate
Reeves (R)		 Generic
Opponent		 Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College April 16–20, 2023 783 (RV) ± 4.3% 36% 60% 5%
Mississippi Today/Siena College January 3–8, 2023 821 (RV) ± 4.6% 33% 57% 10%

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Waller is a Republican, but media sources speculated that he might run as an independent.
  3. "Not going to vote" with 6%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. Additionally, "[a]ll indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election".
  5. "Some other candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Presley's campaign
  2. This poll was sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center

References
  1. "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid". Clarion Ledger. January 3, 2023.
  2. "Mississippi elections, 2023". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  3. Vakil, Caroline (January 23, 2023). "Democrats see Mississippi governor's race as ripe for an upset". The Hill. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  4. Lucas, Fred (April 21, 2023). "3 deep red state governors' races that could be surprisingly competitive in 2023 — and even expand Dem control". Fox News. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  5. "Candidate qualifying deadline passes and reveals slate of 2023 statewide candidates". www.wlbt.com. February 1, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  6. "Mississippi doctor against vaccine mandate runs for governor". www.wlbt.com. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  7. Harrison, Bobby (October 16, 2022). "Gov. Tate Reeves' low poll numbers could embolden opposition in 2023". Mississippi Today.
  8. "Number of election qualifiers has trickled as 5 p.m. deadline approaches today".
  9. Pender, Geoff (December 21, 2020). "Gov. Tate Reeves straddling fences, catching flak from all quarters". Mississippi Today. Mississippi News and Information Corporation. Retrieved February 8, 2021.
  10. Bakken, Bob (December 27, 2022). "Foster announces run for supervisor".
  11. "Ag Commissioner Andy Gipson announces re-election bid for 2023". July 28, 2022.
  12. Harrison, Bobby (August 4, 2022). "House in limbo as Speaker Philip Gunn weighs run for governor". Mississippi Today. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  13. "Mississippi Speaker of the House Philip Gunn announces he will not run for reelection". The Clarion-Ledger. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  14. "Bill Waller Jr. 'strongly considering' a primary challenge of Gov. Tate Reeves". January 3, 2023.
  15. "Ex-justice Waller will not run for Mississippi governor". AP NEWS. January 31, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  16. Vance, Taylore (December 17, 2022). "Secretary of State Michael Watson mulls move to oust Gov. Tate Reeves". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  17. Journal, TAYLOR VANCE Daily. "Michael Watson will run for re-election as secretary of state". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  18. Bonelli, Cam (August 15, 2022). "Auditor talks future". Laurel Leader-Call. Shad White isn't planning a run for governor, but he will be running for reelection as state auditor.
  19. Hernandez, Rachel (January 12, 2023). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor". WKRG. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  20. Harrison, Bobby (February 17, 2023). "Democrats disqualify Brandon Presley's primary challengers for governor". Mississippi Today. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  21. "Former congressional candidate Shuwaski Young preparing for 2023 statewide run as Democrat". January 9, 2023. Young did tease his belief that Democrats will field a strong candidate to challenge Reeves for governor, an office that Young has said he is not seeking.
  22. Crown, Kayode (January 10, 2023). "Shuwaski Young Launches Bid For Mississippi Secretary of State". Mississippi Free Press. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  23. Ganucheau, Adam (January 12, 2023). "Rep. Bennie Thompson endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race". Mississippi Today. Retrieved January 13, 2023.
  24. Bakken, Bob. "Presley For Mississippi to report over $1.6 million cash on hand". DeSoto County News. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  25. "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
  26. "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  27. "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  28. Bakken, Bob (May 9, 2023). "Presley endorsed by the Mississippi State Council Of Machinists". DeSoto County News. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  29. Ganucheau, Adam (January 12, 2023). "Rep. Bennie Thompson endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race". Mississippi Today. Retrieved January 13, 2023.
  30. https://www.splcactionfund.org/press-center/splc-action-fund-endorses-brandon-presley-mississippi-governor%E2%80%99s-race
Official campaign websites
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