2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

The 2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Oklahoma. Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt was re-elected to a second term, defeating his Democratic challenger Joy Hofmeister.[1] former Republican state senator Ervin Yen ran as an independent, and Natalie Bruno was the Libertarian nominee.

See also: 2022 United States gubernatorial elections

2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election
November 8, 2022
Turnout50.2% Decrease
 
Nominee Kevin Stitt Joy Hofmeister
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 639,484 481,904
Percentage 55.4% 41.8%
Stitt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Hofmeister:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      ≥90%
Governor before election

Kevin Stitt
Republican

 Elected Governor

Kevin Stitt
Republican

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Although Stitt won by a comfortable margin, and even expanded his margin from 2018, his performance was the worst of any 2022 Republican candidate for statewide office in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Hofmeister's performance was the second best of any 2022 Democratic statewide candidate in Oklahoma, only behind State Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee Jena Nelson.

The primary elections for the Republican and Democratic parties' nominations took place on June 28, 2022.[2] The deadline for candidates to file was April 15, 2022.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Ervin Yen, former State Senator from the 40th district, was the first to declare their campaign for the Republican Party of Oklahoma's nomination on November 8, 2020.[3] Yen later publicly announced on October 19, 2021, that he was leaving the Republican Party of Oklahoma. He criticized the party's opposition to mask and vaccine mandates for COVID-19, saying "The Oklahoma GOP has left me."[4]

Incumbent Kevin Stitt was reported as joining the race in January 2021 after officially filing for re-election.[5]

Mark Sherwood, a naturopath, was reported as joining the race in September 2021. His platform includes a "zero tolerance policy" for vaccine and mask mandates, stating "I believe the concept of vaccine and mask mandates needs to end."[6]

Joel Kintsel announced his candidacy on April 7. Moira McCabe was reported to have launched their campaign around the same time.[7]

In early June, Stitt's campaign pulled one of its commercials after Oklahoma County District Attorney, David Prater announced an investigation into whether it violated state law for featuring Oklahoma Attorney General John O'Connor. While pulling the ad, the campaign maintained they "are confident that it is an acceptable campaign ad focused on the Governor's accomplishments and fulfilled campaign promises."[8]

Incumbent Kevin Stitt won the June 28 Republican primary.

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew before filing

Declined

Endorsements
Mark Sherwood
State Senators
State Representative
Individual
Kevin Stitt
U.S. Executive Branch official
State Senators
State Representatives
Newspaper
Organizations

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joel
Kintsel		 Moira
McCabe		 Mark
Sherwood		 Kevin
Stitt		 Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 4% 3% 8% 61% 23%
SoonerPoll April 25 – May 11, 2022 306 (LV) ± 5.6% 4% 1% 5% 67% 24%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 455 (LV) ± 4.6% – – 15% 59% 26%

Results
Results by county:
  Stitt
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Stitt (incumbent) 248,525 69.06%
Republican Joel Kintsel 51,587 14.33%
Republican Mark Sherwood 47,713 13.26%
Republican Moira McCabe 12,046 3.35%
Total votes 359,871 100.0%

Democratic primary
Former state senator Connie Johnson was the first Democrat to enter the race.

Former state senator Connie Johnson was the first Democrat to enter the race, officially declaring her candidacy on July 6, 2021. Her platform includes expanding access to healthcare, revitalizing Oklahoma's infrastructure, pursuing criminal justice reforms like banning the death penalty, support for reproductive rights, and legalizing marijuana (marijuana is currently legal in Oklahoma for medicinal purposes, but is illegal for recreational use). A political progressive, Johnson was the only Oklahoma superdelegate who supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential primary.[24][25]

On October 7, 2021, Oklahoma State Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister announced her plans to switch from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party and run for governor. Hofmeister had first been elected as a Republican in 2014 and 2018. This marked the first time that a Democrat held a statewide elected position in Oklahoma since Republicans swept every statewide office in 2010. Hofmeister had frequently clashed with Republican governor Kevin Stitt during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, she opposed the decision by the Oklahoma State Department of Education, whose members were appointed by Stitt, to forego imposing a mask mandate on schools.[26] Her platform includes increasing education funding, investing in infrastructure, expanding mental health services, sentencing reform, and support for abortion rights.[27]

Johnson was openly skeptical of Hofmeister's decision to change parties, calling it a "big hoax." She pointed out that Hofmeister could still switch back to the Republican Party after being elected.[27] However, other Democrats in the state were more receptive, with the Oklahoma Democratic Party issuing a statement welcoming Hofmeister to the party.[28] Oklahoma Democratic Party chair Alicia Andrews admitted she was suspicious at first, but after talking with Hofmeister she became convinced that Hofmeister's intentions were good. Hofmeister emphasized that she was not changing her political beliefs, just her party, and is considerably more moderate in comparison to Johnson.[29] Andrews commented that they are "two very different candidates," and they give Democratic voters "a real choice. If you don’t have a super progressive bent and maybe Connie scares you because she is so progressive, you have Joy. If Joy is too moderate, you have Connie."[25]

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Joy
Hofmeister		 Connie
Johnson		 Undecided
Amber Integrated (R) October 12–14, 2021 243 (RV) ± 6.3% 33% 13% 55%

Results
Results by county:
  Hofmeister
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Johnson
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
Democratic primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joy Hofmeister 101,913 60.73%
Democratic Connie Johnson 65,894 39.27%
Total votes 167,807 100.0%

General election
Ervin Yen, who served in the Oklahoma Senate as a Republican, ran as an Independent candidate.

Candidates

Declared, but failed to file

Debates
2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Joy
Hofmeister		 Kevin
Stitt		 Natalie
Bruno		 Ervin
Yen
1 October 19, 2022 C-SPAN Tres Savage and Storme Jones P P N N

Endorsements
Kevin Stitt (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide Officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Newspapers
Labor Unions
Organizations
Joy Hofmeister (D)
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State Senators
State Representatives
Tribal Nations
Tribal officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Labor unions
Local Officials
Organizations

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[67] Likely R September 29, 2022
Inside Elections[68] Likely R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[69] Likely R October 12, 2022
Politico[70] Likely R October 3, 2022
RCP[71] Tossup October 17, 2022
Fox News[72] Lean R November 1, 2022
538[73] Likely R October 17, 2022
Elections Daily[74] Safe R November 7, 2022

Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kevin
Stitt (R)		 Joy
Hofmeister (D)		 Other
[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight March 27 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 48.2% 43.4% 8.4% Stitt +4.8
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Kevin
Stitt (R)		 Joy
Hofmeister (D)		 Natalie
Bruno (L)		 Ervin
Yen (I)		 Undecided
Ascend Action (R) November 5–6, 2022 682 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 46% 1% 1% 4%
Tomahawk Strategies (R) November 1–3, 2022 729 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% – – –
Blueprint Polling October 26 – November 1, 2022 557 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 40% 2% 4% 6%
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 1] October 28–31, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 39% – – 4%
Amber Integrated (R) October 26–28, 2022 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 2% 4% 4%
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 40% 1% 2% 8%
52% 43% 2% 4% –
Ascend Action (R) October 24–28, 2022 749 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 48% 1% 1% 6%
SoonerPoll October 24–28, 2022 324 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 48% 2% 3% 2%
Amber Integrated (R) October 13–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% 1% 3% 5%
Ascend Action (R) October 10–12, 2022 638 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 0% 0% 8%
SoonerPoll October 3–6, 2022 301 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 47% 2% 1% 7%
American Viewpoint (R)[upper-alpha 1] September 26–28, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 33% 9%[lower-alpha 4] 8%
Amber Integrated (R) September 19–21, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 44% 2% 1% 6%
–(L)[upper-alpha 2] September 15–18, 2022 2,989 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 40% 9% 5% 7%
SoonerPoll September 2–7, 2022 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 43% 3% 4% 7%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 522 (RV) ± 6.3% 55% 36% – – 10%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] July 22–26, 2022 2,079 (LV) ± 3.1% 42% 34% 6% 4% 14%
Amber Integrated (R) June 6–9, 2022 795 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 29% 2% 5% 18%
Amber Integrated (R) March 24–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 30% 3% 4% 18%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 4] January 10–21, 2022 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 49% 27% 3% 5% 15%
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 3] January 6–10, 2022 881 (LV) ± 4.8% 58% 32% – – 10%
Amber Integrated (R) December 15–19, 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 32% – – 21%
Amber Integrated (R) October 12–14, 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 33% – – 18%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R)[upper-alpha 4] October 2021 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 31% 6% 17%

Results
2022 Oklahoma gubernatorial election[75][76]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kevin Stitt (incumbent) 639,484 55.45% +1.12%
Democratic Joy Hofmeister 481,904 41.79% -0.44%
Libertarian Natalie Bruno 16,243 1.41% -2.03%
Independent Ervin Yen 15,653 1.36% N/A
Total votes 1,153,284 100.0%
Turnout 1,153,284 50.23%
Registered electors 2,295,906
Republican hold

See also

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Paul Tay was arrested on August 23, 2021 and charged with kidnapping, assault with a deadly weapon, and rape.[36] The charges were later dropped in early August 2022, nearly a year after his arrest.[37]
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. "A 3rd party candidate" with 9%
Partisan clients
  1. This poll was sponsored by Stitt's campaign
  2. This poll was conducted in-house by and for Bruno's campaign
  3. This poll was sponsored by Oklahoma's Children Our Future
  4. Poll sponsored by the American Federation for Children

References
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  2. "2022 Statutory Election Dates and Deadlines" (PDF). oklahoma.gov. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  3. "Former state Sen. Ervin Yen officially announces campaign for Oklahoma governor". KOCO. November 8, 2020.
  4. Forman, Carmen (October 19, 2021). "Second Oklahoma gubernatorial candidate changes political affiliation, abandons GOP". The Oklahoman. Retrieved October 20, 2021.
  5. "Gov. Kevin Stitt Files Paperwork To Run For Re-Election in 2022". News 9. January 15, 2021.
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Official campaign websites
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