2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 8, 2022, to elect two U.S. Representatives from Montana, one from each of its congressional districts. Prior to this election cycle, Montana had one at-large district, represented by Republican Matt Rosendale. However, during the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained the 2nd district that it lost in 1993. As a result, Montana became the first state relegated from multi-district to at-large status that reclaimed a 2nd representative in the House of Representatives, in which Rosendale ran for re-election.[1][2]

For related races, see 2022 United States House of Representatives elections.

2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
November 8, 2022
All 2 of Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Party Republican Democratic Independent
Last election 1 0 0
Seats won 2 0 0
Seat change Increase 1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 245,081 158,745 47,195
Percentage 52.86% 34.24% 10.18%
Swing Decrease 3.53% Decrease 9.37% New
Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
1894
Capital referendum
2004
Initiative 96
2012
Referendum 121
2016
Initiative 182
2020
Initiative 190

Overview

District
District Republican Democratic Others Total Result
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1120,28549.73%112,27146.42%9,3053.85%241,861100.00%Republican gain
District 2120,89956.57%42,90520.08%49,89223.35%213,696100.00%Republican hold
Total241,18452.94%155,17634.06%59,19712.99%455,557100.00%
Popular vote
Republican
 
 52.94%
Democratic
 
 34.06%
Independent
 
 10.30%
Libertarian
 
 2.70%
House seats
Republican
 
 100.00%

District 1
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district election
 
Nominee Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 123,102 115,265
Percentage 49.6% 46.5%
Precinct results
Zinke:      50−60%      60−70%      70−80%      80−90%
Tranel:      40−50%      50−60%      60−70%      70−80%      80−90%      >90%
No votes:      
U.S. Representative before election

None
(New district)

 Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

See also: Montana's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Bozeman and Butte.[3] It is currently represented along with the rest of the state by at-large district representative Matt Rosendale. Since Rosendale is running for re-election in the 2nd district, this district is an open seat.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Endorsements
Ryan Zinke
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. Representative

Results
Republican primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke 35,601 41.7
Republican Albert Olszewski 33,927 39.7
Republican Mary Todd 8,915 10.4
Republican Matthew Jette 4,973 5.8
Republican Mitch Heuer 1,953 2.3
Total votes 85,369 100.0
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements
Monica Tranel
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions
Tom Winter
U.S. Representative
Organization

Results
Democratic primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Monica Tranel 37,138 64.9
Democratic Cora Neumann 15,396 26.9
Democratic Tom Winter 4,723 8.2
Total votes 57,257 100.0
Nominee
  • John Lamb, farmer and business owner[30]

Debate
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel John Lamb
1 Oct. 1, 2022 KTVQ Donna Kelly YouTube P P N

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Lean R October 19, 2022
Inside Elections[32] Lean R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Lean R October 19, 2022
Politico[34] Likely R April 5, 2022
RCP[35] Likely R June 9, 2022
Fox News[36] Lean R October 18, 2022
DDHQ[37] Likely R September 29, 2022
538[38] Likely R November 8, 2022
The Economist[39] Likely R September 28, 2022

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Ryan
Zinke (R)		 Monica
Tranel (D)		 John
Lamb (L)		 Undecided
MSU Billings October 3–14, 2022 <343 (V)[lower-alpha 2] ± 5.9% 34% 25% 17% 20%
Victoria Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] September 14–19, 2022 400 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 40% 8% 11%
Impact Research (D)[upper-alpha 2] September 14–19, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 43% 3% 9%

Results
2022 Montana's 1st congressional district election[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke 123,102 49.6
Democratic Monica Tranel 115,265 46.5
Libertarian John Lamb 9,593 3.8
Total votes 247,960 100.0
Republican win (new seat)
County results

Source[40]

Ryan Zinke
Republican		 Monica Tranel
Democratic		 John Lamb
Libertarian		 Margin Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Beaverhead3,00466.36%1,33029.38%1934.26%1,67436.98%4,527
Deer Lodge1,51037.96%2,25656.71%2125.33%–746–18.75%3,978
Flathead29,29061.37%16,57134.72%1,8643.91%12,71926.65%47,725
Gallatin22,28842.18%28,74754.40%1,8103.43%–6,459–12.22%52,845
Glacier1,21339.49%1,74856.90%1113.61%–535–17.42%3,072
Granite1,14964.48%53329.91%1005.61%61634.57%1,782
Lake7,38955.48%5,38840.46%5414.06%2,00115.02%13,318
Lincoln6,68771.65%2,20023.57%4464.78%4,48748.08%9,333
Madison3,29065.39%1,48329.48%2585.13%1,80735.92%5,031
Mineral1,45866.76%58026.56%1466.68%87840.20%2,184
Missoula18,84633.33%35,99163.66%1,7033.01%–17,145–30.32%56,540
Pondera46164.57%22731.79%263.64%23432.77%714
Powell1,76268.48%63924.83%1726.68%1,12343.65%2,573
Ravalli15,15864.32%7,52331.92%8863.76%7,63532.40%23,567
Sanders4,54968.67%1,61524.38%4606.94%2,93444.29%6,624
Silver Bow5,04835.68%8,43459.62%6654.70%–3,386–23.93%14,147

District 2
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district election
 
Nominee Matt Rosendale Gary Buchanan Penny Ronning
Party Republican Independent Democratic
Popular vote 121,979 46,915 43,480
Percentage 56.6% 21.9% 20.2%
County results
Rosendale:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Matt Rosendale
Republican

 Elected U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican

See also: Montana's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena.[3] Incumbent Matt Rosendale, a Republican who was elected in the at-large district with 56.4% of the vote in 2020, sought re-election in this district.[41]

This was the first U.S. congressional election where the Democratic nominee finished third since the 2018 Maine Senate race.

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Kyle Austin, healthcare company owner[43]
  • James Boyette, sales manager[7]
  • Charles Walking Child, activist[44]
Declined

Endorsements
Matt Rosendale
U.S. Executive Branch official
Organizations

Results
Republican primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale (incumbent) 73,453 75.7
Republican Kyle Austin 11,930 12.3
Republican Charles Walking Child 5,909 6.1
Republican James Boyette 5,712 5.9
Total votes 97,004 100.0
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
  • Skylar Williams, student[44]
Deceased
Withdrawn
  • Jack Ballard, outdoor writer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[49][50]
Declined

Endorsements
Penny Ronning
Organizations

Results
Democratic primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Penny Ronning 21,983 58.5
Democratic Mark Sweeney dagger 8,586 22.8
Democratic Skylar Williams 7,029 18.7
Total votes 37,598 100.0
Nominee
  • Sam Rankin, lawyer, real estate broker, and perennial candidate[52]
Eliminated in primary
  • Roger Roots, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2014[7]
  • Samuel Thomas[7]

Results
Libertarian primary results[7][16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Sam Rankin 958 47.0
Libertarian Samuel Thomas 554 27.2
Libertarian Roger Roots 526 25.8
Total votes 2,038 100.0
Declared
  • Gary Buchanan, financial advisor and former director of the Montana Department of Commerce[53]
Disqualified
  • Curt Zygmond, beer brewing intern[54][55]

Endorsements
Gary Buchanan
State officials
State legislators
Local politicians
Labor unions

Debate
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Independent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Matt Rosendale Penny Ronning Sam Rankin Gary Buchanan
1 Oct. 1, 2022 KTVQ YouTube P P N P

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Solid R November 16, 2021
Inside Elections[32] Solid R November 19, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Safe R November 17, 2021
Politico[34] Solid R April 5, 2022
RCP[35] Safe R June 9, 2022
Fox News[36] Solid R July 11, 2022
DDHQ[37] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[38] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[39] Safe R September 28, 2022

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
of error		 Matt
Rosendale (R)		 Penny
Ronning (D)		 Gary
Buchanan (I)		 Sam
Rankin (L)		 Undecided
MSU Billings October 3–14, 2022 <343 (V)[lower-alpha 2] ± 5.9% 35% 17% 21% 5% 17%

Results
2022 Montana's 2nd congressional district election[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Rosendale (incumbent) 121,979 56.6
Independent Gary Buchanan 47,195 21.9
Democratic Penny Ronning 43,480 20.2
Libertarian Sam Rankin 3,018 1.4
Total votes 215,672 100.0
Republican hold
County results

Source[40]

Matt Rosendale
Republican		 Gary Buchanan
Independent		 Penny Ronning
Democratic		 Sam Rankin
Libertarian		 Margin Total
County Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes
Big Horn1,47645.47%50515.56%1,21437.40%511.57%2628.07%3,246
Blaine1,04056.06%20811.21%58731.64%201.08%45324.42%1,855
Broadwater2,41770.47%55916.30%39911.63%551.60%1,85854.17%3,430
Carbon3,29456.47%1,42024.34%1,03017.66%891.53%1,87432.13%5,833
Carter66387.35%466.06%374.87%131.71%61781.29%759
Cascade15,63453.76%6,39722.00%6,63822.83%4101.41%8,99630.94%29,079
Chouteau1,46363.89%39017.03%39517.25%421.83%1,06846.64%2,290
Custer2,95964.88%68415.00%84818.59%701.53%2,11146.28%4,561
Daniels60178.98%688.94%8010.51%121.58%52168.46%761
Dawson2,58372.68%42511.96%52414.74%220.62%2,05957.93%3,554
Fallon1,05384.85%877.01%947.57%70.56%95977.28%1,241
Fergus3,80870.19%92717.09%61911.41%711.31%2,88153.11%5,425
Garfield58689.06%466.99%182.74%81.22%54082.07%658
Golden Valley34878.03%5311.88%378.30%81.79%29566.14%446
Hill2,70352.58%87116.94%1,46328.46%1042.02%1,24024.12%5,141
Jefferson3,75257.91%1,61524.93%1,03115.91%811.25%2,13732.98%6,479
Judith Basin78471.66%17015.54%12711.61%131.19%61456.12%1,094
Lewis and Clark14,23742.72%11,20133.61%7,42222.27%4631.39%3,0369.11%33,323
Liberty66071.97%13414.61%11712.76%60.65%52657.36%917
McCone77083.06%596.36%929.92%60.65%67873.14%927
Meagher62868.78%17619.28%899.75%202.19%45249.51%913
Musselshell1,79379.37%25611.33%1838.10%271.20%1,53768.04%2,259
Park4,23646.98%2,14623.80%2,48727.58%1481.64%1,74919.40%9,017
Petroleum23581.31%3913.49%134.50%20.69%19667.82%289
Phillips1,37678.40%1599.06%20311.57%170.97%1,17366.84%1,755
Pondera1,08167.31%28217.56%21513.39%281.74%79949.751,606
Powder River72480.53%10812.01%626.90%50.56%61668.52%899
Prairie46776.68%6210.18%7211.82%81.31%39564.86%609
Richland2,94178.34%2346.23%53014.12%491.31%2,41164.22%3,754
Roosevelt1,39654.15%1666.44%96937.59%471.82%42716.56%2,578
Rosebud1,74764.56%41315.26%51619.07%301.11%1,23145.49%2,706
Sheridan1,09768.09%1308.07%35321.91%311.92%74446.18%1,611
Stillwater3,21470.98%76816.96%48810.78%581.28%2,44654.02%4,528
Sweet Grass1,27668.57%36219.45%20511.02%180.97%91449.11%1,861
Teton1,91765.88%48516.67%47916.46%291.00%1,43249.21%2,910
Toole1,21273.14%22213.40%19411.71%291.75%99059.75%1,657
Treasure30772.75%9121.56%225.21%20.47%21651.18%422
Valley2,21768.85%42913.32%51215.90%621.93%1,70552.95%3,220
Wheatland57668.49%16819.98%849.99%131.55%40848.51%841
Wibaux35781.32%4510.25%337.52%40.91%31271.07%439
Yellowstone32,35153.23%14,58924.00%12,99921.39%8401.38%17,76229.22%60,779

Notes
  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. The poll had 343 total respondents across both congressional districts
  1. This poll was sponsored by the Big Sky Voters PAC, which supports Tranel
  2. This poll was sponsored by Tranel's campaign

References
  1. Lutey, Tom. "Montana gains second U.S. House seat". The Billings Gazette.
  2. "Rapid population growth gives Montana 2nd US House seat". AP News. April 26, 2021.
  3. Wulfhorst, Emma (November 12, 2021). "MT redistricting commission officially approves final map". NBC Montana. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  4. Wilson, Reid (April 29, 2021). "Trump Interior secretary Zinke files to run for Congress, again". The Hill. Retrieved April 29, 2021.
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  7. "2022 Candidate Filing List: Non-Legislative". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved March 14, 2022.
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  10. Wilson, Sam (October 22, 2021). "Kalispell pastor running as Republican in Montana's new House district". Helena Independent Record.
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  12. "Endorsements". February 14, 2022. Retrieved July 14, 2022.
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  19. "Democrat Tom Winter running for U.S. House". www.helenair.com. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
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