2024 United States presidential election

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible to seek reelection. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[10] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the President from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes (this last happened in 1825), and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals (this last happened in 1837).

Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[11]

Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[12] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[13]

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[14][15] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[16]

Legal abortion access is expected to be a leading topic, if not the most, of the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion.[7] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in the year 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[17] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers,[7][17] suggesting that the Comstock laws could be used either to ban or greatly restrict abortion in every state.[18] The Supreme Court's ruling in Dobbs was one of the most historically unpopular Supreme Court decisions in modern history, polling only more favorably than the court's decision in Citizen's United.[19][20]

In 2022, six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion, and the pro-abortion side was victorious in every case, including in states easily won by President Trump.[21] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States.[7] According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest: all Republican-controlled: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wisconsin.[7] In states with abortion restrictions granting de jure exceptions, it was reported that "very few exceptions to these new abortion bans have been granted" and that patients who had been raped or otherwise qualified were being turned away, citing "ambiguous laws and the threat of criminal penalties make them unwilling to test the rules."[22]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of abortion rights before fetal viability, seeing it as a part of a right to privacy and a matter of personal autonomy.[23][24] Every state controlled by Democrats has legalized abortion at least up to the point of fetal viability, which is the point in a pregnancy when the fetus has a reasonable probability of surviving outside the womb - typically considered to be around 24 weeks gestation. Numerous blue states have recently passed constitutional amendments codifying a right to "reproductive freedom," including California, Vermont, and Michigan in the 2022 midterms.

The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary with many potential candidates, such as former vice president Mike Pence, supporting a nationwide ban on the procedure against those who support criminalization at a state level.[7][25] The topic hasn't received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has also made moves to run for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. However, when a six-week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature, DeSantis signed it into law on that day. Meanwhile, despite his involvement in selecting three Supreme Court justices who voted to invalidate the historic decision, Donald Trump has mostly avoided the topic since Roe v. Wade was overturned.[26]

Donald Trump did not concede defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2023.[27][28] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[29][30] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[31]

In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon."[32] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[33]

Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk.[34] Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology, with liberals tending to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election,[35] while many conservatives believe that Democrats have cheated in elections,[36] attempted and are still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary including impeachment and indictment,[37] and that liberals are undermining Judeo-Christian values,[38] which many conservatives believe to be a core part of American democracy.[39] Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics, the potential for political violence, and general corruption of public officials are also aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy.[40]

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[41] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic, a supply-chain crisis, and economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[42][43] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[44] Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[45][46]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly those who left their work for child-care responsibilities.[47] Temporary child-care measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these all expire before the 2024 election.[48] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[49]

During a National Rifle Association (NRA) conference in Indianapolis on April 14, 2023, Donald Trump and other declared and potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners' rights, on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville. Democrats criticized the GOP's march of candidates in front of the NRA, saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year.[26]

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville.[50]

According to Human Rights Campaign (HRC), 520 anti-LGBT bills have been introduced in state legislatures in 2023 alone as of May 2023, with 220 of those bills going against transgender rights, the highest number of bills targeting transgender people in a single year to date.[51] The HRC released data in March 2023 indicating that more than half of transgender youth from ages 13–17 have either lost or are at risk of losing access to gender-affirming healthcare.[52] In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is seen as a potential 2024 challenger to Trump, has called for physicians who give gender-affirming healthcare to minors to be sued.[53]

• Joe Exotic, businessman and media personality; independent candidate for president in 2016[72]

• John Anthony Castro, tax consultant and perennial candidate[102]
• Perry Johnson, businessman who failed to qualify for the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election[103]
• Steve Laffey, mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island (2003–2007)[104]
• Corey Stapleton, Montana Secretary of State (2017–2021), member of the Montana Senate from the 27th district (2001–2009)[105]

As of May 2023, the following individuals have planned an announcement declaring whether they will run for president.

• Chris Christie, 55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018), U.S. Attorney for New Jersey (2002–2008), Morris County Freeholder (1995–1997), candidate for president in 2016[106] (announcement expected in May 2023)[107]
• Ron DeSantis, 46th Governor of Florida (2019–present), United States Representative from FL-06 (2013–2018) (announcement expected on May 24, 2023)[108]
• Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present), United States Representative from SC-01 (2011–2013), member of the South Carolina House of Representatives from the 117th district (2009–2011), member of the Charleston County Council from the 3rd district (1995–2009)[109] (announcement expected on May 22, 2023; exploratory committee previously formed on April 12, 2023)[110]

As of May 2023, the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

• Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper[111]
• Kanye West, rapper, candidate for president in 2020 (campaign)[112]
• Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author[113]

• Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Secretary of Appointments of Maryland (2003–2007); founder of Hogan Companies and Change Maryland[114]
• Joe Manchin, United States Senator from West Virginia (2010–present), 34th Governor of West Virginia (2005–2010), 27th West Virginia Secretary of State (2001–2005), member of the West Virginia Senate from the 13th district (1986–1996), member of the West Virginia House of Delegates from the 31st district (1982–1986)[114]

• Mark Cuban, investor and entrepreneur[115]
• Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman[116]
• Kyrsten Sinema, United States Senator from Arizona (2019–present), United States Representative from AZ-09 (2013–2019), member of the Arizona Senate (2011–2012), member of the Arizona House of Representatives (2005–2011)[117]