2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held in early 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 40 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a proportional basis.[1] As in past primary cycles, the Iowa caucus will be the first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary caucus.
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40 Republican National Convention delegates | ||
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| Elections in Iowa |
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Background and electorate
History of the Iowa caucus
Beginning in 1972, the Iowa caucuses have been characterized as the first major electoral test for both Democratic and Republican presidential contenders.[2] Despite its strategic importance, between 1976 and 2016, only three out of eight winners of the Iowa caucuses went on to receive the Republican presidential nomination.[3]
Republican electorate
Matthew Dallek, a professor of political history at George Washington University, has argued that the Iowa Republican caucuses effectively serve as "referendums on who is the most socially conservative candidate" in the Republican field.[3]
Commentators have noted the decisive role of Evangelical Christian caucusgoers in past contests. The victory of social conservatives Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Iowa caucuses, respectively, was credited to their strong support among evangelical voters.[4][5][6][7]
In 2016, it was noted by The Des Moines Register that almost half of likely Republican caucusgoers self-identify as evangelical or born-again Christians.[8] In the 2016 Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas defeated eventual nominee Donald Trump by a 27.6% to 24.3% margin in what was considered an upset victory.
Candidates
Declared candidates
Former President Donald Trump, former Governor of South Carolina and Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, former Governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and radio host Larry Elder are the only main contenders to officially announce their candidacy so far.[9][10][11][12][13]
Potential candidates
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis is widely expected to announce his candidacy as soon as May 2023.[14] Commentators have described DeSantis as Trump's closest rival in the Republican primary based on primary polling taken in 2022 and 2023.[15][16] Former Vice President Mike Pence is also considering a candidacy for the Republican nomination.[17]
Other Republicans reportedly considering a candidacy include Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina;[18] Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire;[19] former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey;[20] former National Security Advisor John Bolton of Maryland;[21] former Representative Mike Rogers of Michigan;[22] former Representative Will Hurd of Texas;[23] and Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez of Florida.[24]
Campaign developments
In February 2023, the Trump campaign announced its Iowa campaign staff, with state representative Bobby Kaufmann and consultant Eric Branstad, the son of former Governor Terry Branstad, serving as senior advisors.[25] In March 2023, Trump's campaign announced that it would hold an "America First Education Policy" event in Davenport on March 13, marking his first official campaign appearance in the state.[26] On March 13, 2023, Trump made his first appearance in the state since announcing his candidacy, in which he spoke before a crowd in Davenport.[27]
Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis, who has not declared his candidacy, held a pair of events in the state on March 10, and was accompanied by Governor Kim Reynolds.[28]
Endorsements
Ron DeSantis
- State Senators
- Waylon Brown, Iowa State Senator from the District 30 (2023–present) and District 26 (2017–2023)[29]
- Mark Costello, Iowa State Senator from the District 8 (2023–present) and District 12 (2015–2023)[29]
- Adrian Dickey, Iowa State Senator from the District 44 (2023–present) and District 41 (2021–2023)[29]
- Jesse Green, Iowa State Senator from the District 24 (2021–present)[29]
- Dennis Guth, Iowa State Senator from the District 28 (2023–present) and District 4 (2013–2023)[29]
- Mike Klimesh, Iowa State Senator from the District 32 (2023–present) and District 28 (2021–2023)[29]
- Ken Rozenboom, Iowa State Senator from the District 19 (2023–present) and District 40 (2013–2023)[29]
- Dave Rowley, Iowa State Senator from the District 5 (2023–present) and District 1 (2022–2023)[29]
- Tom Shipley, Iowa State Senator from the District 9 (2023–present) and District 11 (2015–2023)[29]
- Amy Sinclair, Iowa State Senator from the District 12 (2023–present) and District 14 (2013–2023); President of the Iowa Senate (2023-present)[29]
- Scott Webster, Iowa State Senator from the District 47 (2023–present)[29]
- State Representatives
- Brian Best, Iowa State Representative from District 11 (2023–present) and District 12 (2015–2023)[29]
- Ken Carlson, Iowa State Representative from District 13 (2023–present)[29]
- Taylor Collins, Iowa State Representative from District 95 (2023–present)[29]
- Tom Determann, Iowa State Representative from District 69 (2023–present)[29]
- Dave Deyoe, Iowa State Representative from District 51 (2023–present), District 49 (2013–2023), and District 10 (2007–2013)[29]
- Jon Dunwell, Iowa State Representative from District 38 (2023–present) and District 29 (2021–2023)[29]
- Dan Gehlbach, Iowa State Representative from District 46 (2023–present)[29]
- Bill Gustoff, Iowa State Representative from District 40 (2023–present)[29]
- Dean Fisher, Iowa State Representative from District 53 (2023–present) and District 72 (2013–2023)[29]
- Robert Henderson, Iowa State Representative from District 2 (2023–present)[29]
- Steven Holt, Iowa State Representative from District 12 (2023–present) and District 18 (2015–2023)[29]
- Ann Meyer, Iowa State Representative from District 8 (2023–present) and District 9 (2019–2023)[29]
- Norlin Mommsen, Iowa State Representative from District 70 (2023–present) and District 97 (2015–2023)[29]
- Henry Stone, Iowa State Representative from District 9 (2023–present) and District 7 (2021–2023)[29]
- Tom Moore, Iowa State Representative from District 18 (2023–present) and District 21 (2015–2023)[29]
- Carter Nordman, Iowa State Representative from District 47 (2023–present) and District 19 (2021–2023)[29]
- David Sieck, Iowa State Representative from District 16 (2023–present) and District 23 (2015–2023)[29]
- Brent Siegrist, Iowa State Representative from District 19 (2023–present), District 16 (2021–2023), District 84 (1993–2003), and District 99 (1985–1993)[29]
- Skyler Wheeler, Iowa State Representative from District 4 (2017–present)[29]
- Phil Thompson, Iowa State Representative from District 48 (2023–present) and District 47 (2019–2023)[29]
- Mike Vondran, Iowa State Representative from District 94 (2023–present)[29]
- Matt Windschitl, Iowa State Representative from District 15 (2023–present), District 17 (2013–2023), and District 56 (2007–2013); Majority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2020–present); former Speaker pro tempore of the Iowa House of Representatives (2014–2020)[29]
- John Wills, Iowa State Representative from District 10 (2023–present) and District 1 (2015–2023); Speaker pro tempore of the Iowa House of Representatives (2020–present)[29]
- Hans Wilz, Iowa State Representative from District 25 (2023–present)[29]
- Devon Wood, Iowa State Representative from District 17 (2023–present)[29]
Nikki Haley
- State Representatives
- Austin Harris, IA House from District 26 (2023–present)[30]
Donald Trump
- Former Executive Branch officials
- Matthew Whitaker, Acting United States Attorney General (2018-2019)[31]
- Former U.S. Representatives
- State Senators
- Lynn Evans, IA Senate from District 3 (2023-present)[33]
- Julian Garrett, IA Senate from District 11 (2023-present) and District 13 (2013-2023) and IA House from the District 25 (2013-2013) and District 73 (2011-2013)[34]
- Tim Kraayenbrink, IA Senate from District 4 (2023-present) and District 5 (2015-2023)[35]
- Charlie McClintock, IA Senate from District 4 and the IA House from the District 95 (2021–2023)[36]
- Jeff Reichman, IA Senate from District 50 (2023–present) and District 42 (2021-2023)[37]
- Cherielynn Westrich, IA Senate from District 13 (2023-present) and IA House from the District 81 (2021-2023)[38]
- State Representatives
- Brooke Boden, IA House from District 21 (2023-present) and District 26 (2021-2023)[39]
- Steve Bradley, IA House from District 66 (2023–present) and District 58[36]
- Mark Cisneros, IA House from District 96 (2023–present) and District 91 )2021-2023)[37]
- Cindy Golding, IA House from District 83 (2023–present)[36]
- Stan Gustafson, IA House from District 22 (2023-present) and District 25 (2014-2023)[40]
- Heather Hora, IA House from District 92 (2023–present)[36]
- Craig Johnson, IA House from District 67 (2023–present) and the IA Senate from District 32 (2017-2023)[36]
- Bobby Kaufmann, IA House from District 82 (2023–present) and District 73 (2013-2023)[41]
- Anne Osmundson, IA House from District 64 (2023–present) and District 56 (2019-2023)[36]
- Brad Sherman, IA House from District 91 (2023–present)[36]
- Derek Wulf, IA House from District 76 (2023–present)[36]
- Notable individuals
- Eric Branstad, political consultant[42]
Declined to endorse
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Asa Hutchinson |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Research | May 9–11, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 44% | – | 11% |
| 33% | – | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | 22% | ||||
| McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 27–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 54% | 7%[lower-alpha 1] | 5% |
| 22% | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | – | ||||
| Victory Insights | Apr 10–13, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 24% | 14% | 4% | – | 3% | – | 54% | 1%[lower-alpha 2] | – |
| 59% | 24% | 5% | – | 8% | – | – | 4%[lower-alpha 3] | – | ||||
| 41% | – | – | – | – | – | 59% | – | – | ||||
| Cygnal | Apr 3–4, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 30% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 37% | 3%[lower-alpha 4] | 19% |
| J.L. Partners | Mar 25 – Apr 4, 2023 | 628 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 26% | 5% | – | 3% | 1% | – | 41% | 10%[lower-alpha 5] | 14% |
| 39% | – | – | – | – | – | 47% | – | 15% | ||||
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Nov 14–18, 2022 | 393 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 33% | 1% | – | 3% | – | – | 30% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 16% |
| WPA Intelligence | Nov 11–13, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | – | – | – | – | – | 37% | – | 16% |
| WPA Intelligence | Aug 7–10, 2022 | 508 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 37% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 12% |
| Neighborhood Research and Media | Jun 22 – Jul 1, 2022 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 17% | 2% | – | 2% | – | – | 38% | 4%[lower-alpha 7] | – |
| Victory Insights | Mar 5–8, 2021 | 630 (RV) | – | 4% | 6% | – | 8% | – | – | 61% | 13%[lower-alpha 8] | – |
| 20% | 10% | – | 19% | – | – | – | 33%[lower-alpha 9] | – |
See also
Notes
- Mitt Romney with 4%, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie and Larry Elder with 1%, Chris Sununu, John Bolton, Glenn Youngkin with 0%
- Perry Johnson with 1%
- Perry Johnson with 4%
- Kristi Noem with 2%; Mike Pompeo with 1%
- Mike Pompeo with 3%; Glenn Youngkin with 1%; "Someone else" with 6%
- Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, and Ben Carson with 1%
- Kim Reynolds, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio with 1%
- Mitt Romney with 5%; Ted Cruz with 4%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 2%
- Ted Cruz with 16%; Mitt Romney with 5%; Kristi Noem and Mike Pompeo with 6%
References
- "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
- Holland, Brynn (November 25, 2019). "How the Iowa Caucus Has Shaped the US Presidential Race". History.com. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
- Norwood, Candice (2020-02-06). "Do Iowa caucus winners become president? History shows mixed results". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- "GOP race divides evangelical voters in Iowa". PBS NewsHour. 2016-02-01. Retrieved 2023-03-03.
- "Trump and Iowa evangelicals: A bond that is hard to break". Associated Press. 2023-04-12. Retrieved 2023-04-19.
Beyond Cruz, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won the 2012 caucuses as a crusading abortion opponent. In 2008, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, posted a surprise victory by cobbling together a Christian coalition of pastors and religious home-school advocates.
- Cohn, Nate (2015-05-05). "Mike Huckabee and the Continuing Influence of Evangelicals". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-04-19.
Most important, evangelicals also represent nearly 60 percent of Iowa caucus goers, which allowed cultural conservatives like Rick Santorum (in 2012) and Mr. Huckabee (in 2008) to carry the state.
- Zitner, Aaron. "Ted Cruz's Iowa Win Powered by Evangelicals, Conservatives". WSJ. Retrieved 2023-05-15.
- Jacobs, Jennifer (February 1, 2016). "Cruz wins GOP caucuses, beating Trump". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
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